EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Carney government’s recent moves, DIA’s CPSP bid revision, CPCSC Level 1 roll out, DSRB host status, and the Automaker-Hanwha tie up, are starting to look less like discrete initiatives and more like coherent application of industrial policy. Outside Canada, the period’s core lessons from allies seems to be that allied defence industrial bases (particularly South Korea and Japan) are reorganizing around export market opportunities and co-production, not just national procurement. At the moment, allies and partners are clearly a step ahead on the export .

Canada secured host status for the new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, positioning Ottawa as a financing hub for allied supply chains. The implications for partners on this side of the planet are unclear as of yet. PSPC launched CP-CSC Level 1, upping the compliance bar for the supplier base. Japan delivered the period’s most consequential industrial outcomes including the scrapping of the five-category export limit on 21 April, and continuing to advance the Mogami contract with Australia for eleven frigates. Together these convert Japan from constrained exporter into a credible supplier of complete weapon systems. South Korea matched the pace: Ottawa allowed Hanwha and TKMS to revise CPSP bids, Korea responded with automotive, sustainment and shipbuilding sweeteners, and Hanwha Ocean signed the Leidos partnership anchoring a long-term North American footprint in design and engineering. In addition, the KF-21 Boramae completed its serial-production maiden flight. Australia released its 2026 National Defence Strategy at AUD 425 billion over the decade. Singapore cut steel on the third and fourth MRCV, and Canada participated in Exercise Balikatan in the Philippines for the first time.

SUMMARY OF WHAT TO WATCH

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

• CPSP bid revision evaluation. Anticipate one or two surprise announcements in the home stretch as evaluators work through finalised bids.

• DSRB capital commitments. Canada secured the host mandate. The live questions are which partner countries commit capital and how DSRB differentiates from existing export-import arrangements.

• CP-CSC SME onboarding supports. Watch for announcements around financial or other supports as SMEs work to onboard CP-CSC.

Medium-Term (2026)

• Team Canada Trade Mission to Japan in June. First concrete test of whether Canadian firms get matched with the Japanese trading houses and primes on co-production conversations rather than the standard sales-pitch format. Made more interesting by the new Japanese export posture.

• Korea’s export-strategy adjustments. Whether Seoul restructures its export apparatus in response to recent setbacks, or pushes through with the current playbook.

Strategic (2026+)

• Japan as complete-systems exporter. The 21 April rule change makes Japan a serious competitor in Indonesian, Vietnamese and Filipino procurement competitions.

CANADA: DSRB to be Hosted in Canada, CP-CSC Rolls Out, Carney’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Year One

• Carney’s Indo-Pacific posture, one year in. APF Canada’s Vina Nadjibulla in Policy Magazine argues Canada’s regional footprint is stronger than ever, but the DIS still runs industrial cooperation almost entirely through NATO channels, leaving an Indo-Pacific gap to close.

• CP-CSC Introduction: the Canadian Program for Cyber Security Certification launched 14 April. Defenders frame the policy as a long-overdue clean-up of the supply chain’s cyber posture. Critics counter that the compliance overhead lands hardest on SMEs without dedicated security staff, and risks narrowing the supplier pool at the moment Ottawa is trying to widen it. PSPC has signalled a phased rollout starting with Level 1; the live test will be transition timing for incumbents on active contracts.

• DSRB headquarters bid lands in Canada. Charter negotiations concluded in Montréal on 29 April, with Canada positioning to host a new multilateral bank for defence supply-chain financing. Open questions: are Japan, Korea, and Australia in or out, and how does the DSRB sit alongside JBIC, KEXIM, and EFA?

Watch: Three open files. Does Tokyo, Seoul or Canberra commit capital to DSRB, and where does it sit relative to JBIC, KEXIM and EFA? Does CP-CSC Level 1 get a transition window for SME incumbents, or land as a hard cut-over? Will Operation Neon continue?

JAPAN: Export Rules Loosened, Mogami Contract Signed, Team Canada Eyes Tokyo

• Export rules loosened. Tokyo scrapped the five-category limit on defence exports on 21 April, shifting from the rescue, transport, surveillance, warning and mine-sweeping list to case-by-case review. Early implications include New Zealand’s evaluation of the Mogami class, renewed Southeast Asia interest and strong indications that Ukraine is exploring sourcing from Japan.

• Updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific Policy: Japan released its updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific policy on 2 May 2026, with Prime Minister Takaichi announcing the refresh in Hanoi under the banner of making the region “more resilient and prosperous together.”

• Mogami contract signed. Australia and Japan executed binding contracts on 18 April for eleven Mogami-class frigates worth roughly USD 7 billion, with Defence Minister Richard Marles and Japanese counterpart Shinjiro Koizumi formalising the largest defence export in Japan’s modern history. The deal anchors MHI as the lead non-US naval supplier to Australia and gives Tokyo a working template for selling complete platforms abroad. Engagements also included signature of a critical mineral arrangement likely in response to Chinese sanctions.

• Team Canada trade mission to Japan in June. Global Affairs has flagged a June trade mission that should feature a defence and security stream. With export rules just loosened, the practical question is whether Canadian firms get matched with the trading houses (Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo) and primes (MHI, KHI, Toshiba) on co-production or supply-chain conversations rather than the usual sales-pitch format.

Watch: Does the June trade mission produce real bilateral defence-industrial frameworks, now that the information sharing agreement is in place? Does NZ’s Mogami consideration mature into a formal acquisition pathway? How does this impact the competitive space?

SOUTH KOREA: CPSP Bid Revisions Land, Hanwha’s Canadian Partner Web Expands, KF-21 Hits Milestone

• CPSP bid revisions land. Ottawa allowed Hanwha and TKMS to revise CPSP bids, and Korea responded with industrial sweeteners. Hanwha would partner with Canadian automotive parts manufacturers, pitched against the backdrop of Canada’s struggling automotive sector under US tariff exposure. Reporting also detailed some of the CPSP scoring and weighting: platform 20 percent, financial criteria 15 percent, with sustainment at 50% carrying the dominant weight. TKMS has countered by pointing to partnerships with Bombardier and Lockheed Martin.

• Hanwha’s Canadian partner web expands. Hanwha Ocean has announced cooperation frameworks with Irving Shipbuilding, AtkinsRéalis, Boreal Energy Systems and Magellan Aerospace. The Irving framework extends beyond builder-supplier into sustainment and workforce. As DIA CEO states that bidders should ‘think hard about whether you have more to put on the table.’

• KF-21 Boramae completes maiden flight. The first serial-production KF-21 completed its maiden flight 22 days after rollout. The milestone matters for KAI and the broader Korean aerospace export pitch into Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

• Hanwha Ocean’s North American shipbuilding bet. Hanwha Ocean signed a US naval design partnership with Leidos, and announced a Philadelphia shipyard workforce expansion on 27 April. The combination positions Hanwha as a long-term player in the US naval shipbuilding gap. Headwinds remain in global markets, including losses on Australia’s frigate competition, friction on Poland’s Orka submarine programme, and US execution risk. The counter argument is that these examples are noise against a structural boom.

Watch: Do recent export setbacks force structural changes to Korea’s export strategy and apparatus, or does Seoul push through? Does Hanwha bring the TIGON wheeled APC into a Canadian manufacturing footprint, putting its vehicle portfolio in direct competition with GDLS’s LAV 6.0 line in London? Or does it focus on the heavier tracked IFV segment Redback, closer in capability to the cancelled Close Combat Vehicle programme?

AUSTRALIA: 2026 NDS Released, AUKUS Industrial Base Deepens, Critical Minerals Gambit

· 2026 NDS released. Australia’s 2026 National Defence Strategy commits AUD 425 billion over the decade, including AUD 53 billion in additional funding. Priorities: undersea warfare, maritime lethality, long-range strike, integrated air and missile defence, autonomous and uncrewed systems, counter-UAS, resilient multi-orbit satcom. Five pillars: greater self-reliance, capability lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East, sovereign defence industrial base resilience, civil preparedness and economic security, regional coordination. The NDS’s emphasis on uncrewed systems, counter-UAS, air and missile defence, and long-range strike shows Canberra converting battlefield lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East into procurement and domestic industrial priorities.

· AUKUS as industrial base. A Global Economics analysis frames AUKUS as evolving from a platform deal into a trilateral defence-industrial base, citing the Ghost Shark autonomous underwater vehicle programme as evidence of how AUKUS is converging defence with advanced manufacturing in Australia, with dozens of local firms now in the supply chain.

Watch: How will Australia’s forthcoming defense industrial strategies adapt or operationalize the national defense strategy?

OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Taiwan: NCSIST will cooperate with Saronic Technologies and Maritime Tactical Systems on uncrewed surface vessels. Taiwan continues to make inroads in global export markets, particularly for drones. In the U.S. where green or blue UAS certification is required for procurement there seems to have been a breakthrough. Germany is advancing defence partnerships with Taiwan, while Canada faces direct warnings from the Chinese envoy on Taiwan-related engagement.

• Singapore: RSN held the steel-cutting ceremony for the third and fourth MRCV. At 150 metres, 8,000 tonnes, 22 knots and over 7,000 nautical miles range, MRCVs are the largest and most technically sophisticated warships built in Singapore. Singapore also announced plans for its first dedicated public safety satellite, Xplorer, scheduled for launch in 2029. ST Engineering announced S4.8 billion in contract awards in Q1 2026, concentrated in the Middle East (Qatar, UAE, Kuwait). Pier 71 launched the SmartPort Challenge at Maritime Week, and Singapore hosted the Milipol TechX trade show.

• Philippines: Exercise Balikatan, running 28 April to 8 May, is one of the largest in its history, with 17,000 personnel including the US, Philippines, Japan, Australia, Canada, France and New Zealand. Canada participated for the first time.

• India: Modi and South Korea’s President agreed to expand defence cooperation beyond the K-9, naming missile systems and anti-aircraft guns, and launched the Korea-India Defence Accelerator Innovation Platform. India also signed a bilateral pact with Russia covering troop and warship deployment, deepening the partnership despite declining Russian arms exports to India.

• New Zealand: Participation in Balikatan and P-8A operations underscore regional demand for maritime patrol, in particular for enforcement of sanctions.


Key Upcoming Events

• The New Maritime Battlespace | 5 May | St. John, NB

• AUSA LANPAC | 12-14 May | Honolulu

• Indian Ocean Defence & Security | 26-28 May | Perth

• CANSEC 2026 | 27-28 May | Ottawa

• Shangri-La Dialogue | 29-31 May | Singapore

• Critical Minerals for Defence | 9-10 June | Toronto

• Naval Defense Philippines | 17-19 June | Manila

• ADSE 2026 | 6-7 August | Abbotsford, BC

• Canadian Aerospace Summit | 27-28 October | Ottawa

  Did we miss something? Is there something that you want us to cover? We’ll be moving to a Monthly publication cadence going forward.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Hormuz crisis is reshaping Indo-Pacific energy security in real time. Materials and other shortages are emerging from Thailand to Australia. US intelligence indicates China is preparing to ship MANPAD systems to Iran via third countries. North Korea’s 6-8 April missile test included new weapon claims, such as a Hwasong-11 cluster-bomb warhead, carbon-fibre blackout munition, and non-nuclear EMP weapon targeting allied ISR and C2. Demonstrating capacity (or at least ambitions) to develop sophisticated weapons despite embargoes and monitoring operations (like Canada’s Op Neon which is set to expire this month). Against this backdrop of supply chain fragility and accelerating regional armament, Canada's procurement decisions carry more weight than usual.

In Canada, Ottawa gave both CPSP bidders a time-limited window to revise proposals by 29 April. Some are viewing this as a tacit acknowledgement that initial submissions did not fully satisfy Defence Industrial Strategy expectations, others view it as a way to galvanize against future protests and legal challenges. Korea’s solution, the KSS-III is en route to Canada amidst some challenging dynamics emerging within the conglomerate at Hanwha Corp including a withdrawn acquisition bid and regulator intervention on a planned shares issue. Canada is exploring observer status in GCAP, but the first Edgewing contract (BAE, Leonardo, JAIEC) was announced on 2 April and funding is now flowing; meaningful industrial roles are being allocated, and the window for Canadian inclusion narrows with each passing month. CAF Outlooks drew record attendance and criticism from ACDC on small-firm accessibility.

Japan and Australia held a defence ministerial on 8 April, with reports of discussions on joint production of long-range missiles and drones under the Framework for Strategic Defence Coordination. Combined with the Mogami-class frigate for the RAN, Australia is establishing itself as Japan’s leading non-US defence-industrial partner. In Singapore, PM Wong and PM Albanese signed a binding protocol under the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement on LNG, diesel, and food, positioning the city-state as a supply chain resilience node. This development seems like a logical place for variable geometry cooperation with others. Singapore Smart Port Challenge 2026 launches at Maritime Week (20-24 April) with opportunities for Canadian maritime technology firms; and Cap Vista's Solicitation 5.0 and Call for Innovation remain open for dual-use companies. RCN ships arrived in Singapore from Exercise Kakadu, reinforcing the bilateral defence relationship at a moment when market entry points are active.

SUMMARY OF WHAT TO WATCH

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

• CPSP bid revisions underway. More announcements to come? For Hanwha corp. complex conglomerate dynamics, a withdrawn acquisition, a regulatory challenge to a planned share issue may invite scrutiny on CPSP related commitments.

• Singapore Maritime Week (20-24 April) and DSA/NATSEC Asia in Kuala Lumpur (20-23 April). Smart Port Challenge and Cap Vista opportunities open for Canadian firms.

• Operation NEON mandate expires April. Renewal or lapse signals Ottawa’s Indo-Pacific commitment.

Medium-Term (2026)

• Canada is seeking observer status. GCAP workshare is being allocated now. The Edgewing contract runs to 30 June. Each quarter without Canadian observer status narrows the window for industrial opportunities. Can Canada accelerate the kicking the tires phase before more funding announcements are made by the partners?

Strategic (2026+)

• Japan-Australia joint missile and drone production sets a template for non-US allied co-production. Canada's ETTA provides a legal basis but no comparable programme of work. Will one materialize? Will it focus on GCAP or something else if it does?

CANADA: Considers GCAP, OP Neon Renewal

• Global Combat Aircraft Program (GCAP) Observer Status: Canada is seeking observer status in the GCAP program to “diversify defence procurement and grow partnership with like-minded allies.” While Canada is kicking the tires, the first contract was signed and funding is now flowing to Edgewing a collaboration between BAE systems, Leonardo and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. Ltd (JAIEC). Meaningful industrial roles are already set, which means including Canadian capabilities will only get more difficult as time goes by.
  

  

• Procurement Outlooks: The Canadian Forces Outlooks were held this past week with record attendance and amidst some criticism from the Alliance of Canadian Defence Companies on accessibility for small Canadian firms. The thrust of the argument was that it’s unfair you have to be a CADSI member to get access. Vincent Marmion highlighted what he’s tracking; what is the Defender’s Den ?

• Operation Neon Renewal: Operation Neon is Canada’s contribution to coordinated multinational effort to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed against North Korea. It is set to expire in April 2026. Given no announcement on its status has occurred, worth watching.

Watch: Will Canada be nimble enough to engage the GCAP partners and get in on the ground floor? How will CADSI and the Government of Canada handle the criticism from ACDC and others on access to the outlooks? Will OP Neon be renewed?

South Korea: CPSP Bid Revisions Amidst Conglomerate Troubles

• Canadian Patrol Submarine Updates: South Korea recently announced that their KSS-III will transit to Canada. After a recent stop in Guam (7 Apr) it is set to arrive in Canada just around bid evaluation time. This news comes amidst reporting that the Government of Canada is allowing TKMS and Hanwha to revise their bids. Given Canada’s broad approach to industrial benefits on CPSP, recent reporting on Hanwha adds a potential note of caution. While the group’s defence and shipbuilding businesses remain operationally strong, debt and stress elsewhere in the Hanwha Corp. conglomerate including an abandoned acquisition, regulatory intervention in a planned share issue, and ongoing restructuring suggests Ottawa should apply careful due diligence to the durability of industrial commitments, especially those that may involve broader conglomerate capabilities. This news comes immediately following public reporting on a legal battle related to IP on the KDDX program.

• Team Canada Trade Mission Wraps: 110+ companies focused on defence, aerospace, ICT and energy transition. Public reporting on the April 2026 Canadian trade delegation to Korea points to active ministerial engagement and commercial matchmaking in defence, energy, and strategic industries, but so far no evidence of publicly announced MOUs, formal agreements or contract signatures related to defence arising from the visit.

Watch: Will Canada use the bid revision period as an opportunity to signal to TKMS and Hanwha that the country wants more out of their bids? In what areas? What can we learn from some of the stresses and the financial position of Hanwha Ocean and the broader Hanwha group?

Japan: Deepening Partnership Down Under

• Japan-Australia defence-industrial partnership deepening. The 8 April ministerial reportedly produced movement toward joint long-range missile and drone production under the Framework for Strategic Defence Coordination. Combined with the Mogami-class frigate for the RAN, Australia is taking the lead in non-US alliance partners in Japan. Canada's ETTA provides a potential entry point to similar arrangements, but Australia is further along.

• Ex Balikatan 2026: It is reported that Japan will send around 1000 troops to an exercise in the Philippines representing a significant shift in Japan’s security and defence posture.

Watch: Watch the GCAP space, and whether Australia makes a play for observer status in that program, or will they focus on US tech? Given Australian leaders in the drone market like CubePilot, watch the allocation of workshare amongst the partners in drones in particular.

Singapore: Gateway to the Indo-Pacific

• Innovation entry points for Canadian firms. Smart Port Challenge 2026 launches at Singapore Maritime Week (20-24 April). Cap Vista Solicitation 5.0 and Call for Innovation remain open.

• Wong-Albanese protocol positions Singapore as supply chain resilience node. PM Wong and PM Albanese signed a Joint Statement on Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies on 10 April. Legally binding SAFTA protocol covering LNG, diesel, and food. Economic Resilience Dialogue and inaugural Energy Ministerial Dialogue to follow.

• Defence diplomacy: Royal Canadian Navy ships arrived in Singapore, coming from Ex Kakadu, underscoring the RCN's sustained operational presence in the Indo-Pacific and the bilateral defence relationship.

Watch: What will the major themes be for the smart ports challenge? What could Canada take away from the massive port automation effort unfolding in Singapore? Is there room for a variable geometry play in the economic resilience file?

Australia: Arctic Radar and Kakadu

• Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN)& Arctic Over the Horizon Radar Progress: Some late reporting from the Australian MOD that PM Carney attended a Defence capability briefing where the Australian MOD and BAE Systems Australia showcased the JORN OTHR system and its high-frequency detection capabilities.

• Ex Kakadu: Vessels from 19 nations (including Canada’s HMCS Charlottetown + MV Asterix) sailed into Sydney Harbour on March 21 for the Exercise Kakadu Fleet Review (KFR), commemorating 125 years since the foundation of Australia’s Navy. (not previously reported, but notable so including here!)

Watch: Will the JORN collaboration move fast enough given the 2029 deadline for Stage 1 capability? Has Canada put in an order for the AIM-260A, or does it plan to given the F-35 review?

Other Regional Developments:

• New Zealand: Chris Penk replaced Judith Collins on 7 April, taking Defence, GCSB, NZSIS, and Space. He is the first NZ defence minister to have served in both the RNZN and Australian forces. NZ reengages with the Cook Islands. Wellington commits to remain the primary defence and security partner for the Cook Islands and release previously suspended funding. The suspension followed Cook Islands' engagement with China on security matters.

• Taiwan: Budget stall continues as the chipwars heats up with Taiwan’s National Security Bureau calling out efforts by Beijing to ‘lure’ companies to establish operations in China.

• India: Reports of growing exports including a wide range of arms, ammunition and fuses and some complete weapon systems, such as the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, artillery, Dornier-228 aircraft, radars, Akash air defence missiles, Pinaka rockets and armoured vehicles.

• Indonesia: Three UNIFIL peacekeepers killed in southern Lebanon. Preliminary UN findings: Israeli tank projectile and Hezbollah IED. Jakarta demanding a thorough investigation. President Prabowo departs for meetings with in Moscow with Putin, his third visit as President.

• Philippines: South China Sea friction continues, with the Philippines highlighting that China may be taking advantage of international attention on the conflict in the middle east amidst exercises with Japan, Australia and the US.

Key Upcoming Events

• Singapore Maritime Week 2026 | 20-24 April | Singapore (Smart Port Challenge 2026 launch)

• DSA and NATSEC Asia 2026 | 20-23 April | Kuala Lumpur

• Milipol TechX 2026 | 28-30 April | Singapore

• The New Maritime Battlespace | 5 May | St. John, NB

• AUSA LANPAC | 12-14 May | Honolulu

• Indian Ocean Defence & Security | 26-28 May | Perth

• CANSEC 2026 | 27-28 May | Ottawa

• Shangri-La Dialogue | 29-31 May | Singapore

• Critical Minerals for Defence | 9-10 June | Toronto

• Naval Defense Philippines | 17-19 June | Manila

• ADSE 2026 | 6-7 August | Abbotsford, BC

• Canadian Aerospace Summit | 27-28 October | Ottawa

Is there anything we’ve missed? What would be useful for you to have covered?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The war in Iran grinds on after Trump postponed his meeting with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, and the Indo-Pacific consequences are compounding. The question across the region is not whether gaps in security architecture, energy security and supply chains are emerging but whether middle powers can engage and fill them fast enough to matter. Japan is scrambling to de-risk critical mineral supplies after Chinese sanctions while navigating US engagement overshadowed by Iran. Seoul is hosting a Canadian trade mission. One to watch: Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai are partnered on the CPSP bid, yet they are currently in a court mediated dispute on the domestic KDDX destroyer programme. How this tension gets managed while courting Ottawa is worth watching. Canada hit 2% of GDP on defence and is moving rapidly on files from ammunition production to domestic space launch capabilities. The seemingly revitalized Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR) convened National Armament Directors from 16 countries in March. The output was tangible initiatives ranging from Chinook repair hubs to tactical drone standards, and ammunition production in the Philippines. In Singapore, Cap Vista’s latest solicitation(s) (Yes, there are two) offer concrete pathways to market for Canadian dual-use firms while TKMS and ST Engineering partner on Submarine maintenance in Hanwha’s backyard.

SUMMARY OF WHAT TO WATCH

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

• Cap Vista deadlines: Singapore's Solicitation 5.0 and Call for Innovation are open. Canadian firms have found success in previous rounds. If you are trial-ready in maritime AI, low-visibility autonomy, portable power, or corrosion protection, the window to apply is now.

Medium-Term (2026)

• PIPIR follow-through: Sixteen countries convened in March with initiatives spanning Chinook repair hubs, solid rocket motor production, and tactical drone standards. Canada’s drone centre of excellence investment gives it a natural entry point. Watch whether Ottawa secures a defined role or remains a participant in name only.

• Japan critical mineral diversification: Over 60% of Japan’s mineral supply originates from China, and sanctions are taking a toll. Australia and Brazil are the primary alternatives. Canada is notably absent from current reporting despite earlier engagement.

• Allied investment screening convergence: Japan’s new CFIUS-style body joins an expanding patchwork of cross-border controls. How interoperable these regimes become will shape defence innovation flows and the compliance landscape for allied tech companies entering the Japanese market?

Strategic (2026+)

• Allied production capacity as the binding constraint: The Iran and Ukraine conflicts continue to demonstrate that Western allies cannot sustain high-intensity operations at meaningful duration. Countries that produce munitions and critical components at scale will hold structural advantage.

CANADA: Hits 2%, DIA, and Time to Pay the PIPIR

• 2% and Quick Movement on Defence Files: Canada hits 2% of GDP on defence, continues to lobby hard for the DSRB, shaped negotiations and pitching to G7 partners, announced $1.4B for ammunition production, selected Spaceport Nova Scotia as dedicated site for defence, Colt Canada receives contract for the Canadian Modular Assault Rifle Project

• Defence Investment Agency lowering $100M threshold for Projects it will manage: Canada’s new defence industry association ACDC, (for the association see here) is reporting that Canada’s Defence Investment Agency is lowering the threshold of contracts it will manage below $100M CAD.

• Revitalization of PIPIR? The US led initiative first announced several years ago and has been generally quiet since, the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR), convened for an annual meeting on 18 March this year. It included 16 countries (including Canada) and some significant industrial developments. These ranged from a Chinook repair hub in S. Korea, Solid Rocket Motor production initiative between Japan and the US, expanding energetics with the Philippines (amid serious opposition) and more. A particularly notable initiative given Canada’s recent investment in the drone center of excellence is the focus on creating standards for tactical drones, common supply chains.

  

Watch: What is the floor of the new DIA project threshold? Is it $50M, $25M, something else? Given that >90% of companies are SMEs, this threshold is consequential. Can the government keep up the pace of delivery with announcements? What’s Canada’s contribution to PIPIR, can we use this as tool to advance supply chain and export diversification priorities?

JAPAN: Chinese Sanctions Drive Critical Mineral Movement, a New Foreign Investment Screening Tool, No News on Golden Dome

• Export Controls & Critical Mineral Focus: Japan is reportedly accelerating its efforts to ‘de-chinafy’ critical mineral supplies. Over 60% of Japan’s minerals originate from China, and Japan recently faced sanctions earlier this year from China. Key partners include Australia and Brazil with Canada notably absent in reporting despite earlier engagement.

• CFIUS Style Screening: Japan’s cabinet adopted a bill to create a cross-ministerial investment screening body modelled on the US CFIUS. This changes the compliance landscape for allied tech companies entering Japan and the exit landscape for Japanese startups with dual-use IP. Finance Ministry and National Security Secretariat will co-chair, with METI and MOD participating.

• Trump Visit and Golden Dome: Reporting earlier in the month indicated that Japan would formally request participation in Golden Dome. However, there was a distinct lack of public reporting on this during PM Takaichi’s visit complicated by the Iran War Fallout including tapping private oil stockpiles and plans to open public stockpiles, and questions around definitions of collective self-defense.

Watch: Will progress be made quickly enough to avoid supply disruptions for sanctioned Japanese companies? What were the results of the Golden Dome discussion? Reports indicated a formal request would likely be made, but very little coverage followed. How will the yen be affected by oil shortages? Will Japan offload US Bonds to deal with inflation or other issues??

SOUTH KOREA: Threats from N. Korea, Submarine Diplomacy & Growing Industrial Capacity

• Heightened Threat Environment: Shortly after the US announced intentions to move missile defence systems, North Korea fired a battery of 10 missiles raising alerts.

• Submarine Diplomacy: The full court press for Canada’s CPSP continues with more industrial tie ups, this time involving Curtiss-Wright and the announcement that South Korea’s KSS-III class submarine ROKS Dosan Ahn Chang-ho departed Jinhae Naval Base on March 25, 2026, for a 14,000 km trans-Pacific deployment to Canada. Canada is also engaged in a Team Canada Trade Mission. Meetings with Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai must be awkward. They are partnered on the CPSP pursuit, but are currently locked in a bitter dispute related to the S. Korean domestic KDDX Destroyer program.

• Growing Industrial Prowess: During the delivery ceremony for the first domestically produced fighter jet, the KF-21, South Korea’s President highlighted the country’s increasing ambitions and industrial prowess making a clear statement that South Korea is eyeing all parts of the value chain from the airframe to engines, components and raw materials.

Watch: Will there be other provocations as the strategic balance and focus shifts? How will HD Hyundai and Hanwha manage their dispute?

SINGAPORE: Opportunities with Cap Vista Offer Foothold, At the Center of Great Power Politics with Manus

• Cap Vista Opportunities: Despite growing concerns of the implication of the Strait of Hormuz closure, Singapore’s Cap Vista (think of an organization that is a mix of Defence Research and Development Canada and In-Q-Tel) opens up its Solicitation 5.0 and Call for Innovation Products and Services. These offer a tremendous pathway into the Indo-Pacific market and several Canadian firms have already found success including Illumia Labs and OnDeck AI. For the most recent challenges, if you’re a trial-ready dual-use company in maritime AI, low-visibility autonomy, advanced portable power/energy, or maritime corrosion protection, you should apply.

• Manus AI feels the Reach of Beijing: Owned by Meta Platforms, Manus AI is a Singapore based start up with Chinese roots that recently became subject to an investigation by Chinese authorities. Originally founded in China in 2022, Manus relocated to Singapore in 2025 shortly before its exit to Meta for ~$2B USD. Its founders were recently restricted from leaving China and are subject to a national security investigation highlighting the growing competition for strategic technologies in the region.

• TKMS and ST Engineering to Partner on Sub Maintenance Hub: TKMS and ST Engineering signed an MoU to explore a joint submarine service and maintenance centre in Singapore, framed around the RSN’s 218SG fleet but explicitly open to other international TKMS submarine operators. Worth noting that TKMS is planting a through-life support node in Southeast Asia. If the 212CD wins CPSP a Singapore-based maintenance hub undercuts one of Hanwha’s core value propositions: that customers can benefit from geographic and industrial proximity to Korean yards when operating in the region.

  

  
  

Watch: Canadian AI firms seem to have fared well in Cap Vista Challenges, will they find success in other areas? Where does the sustainment MoU go?

OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• India: The Defence Acquisition Council formally approves 2026 defence procurement pipeline. Despite the general shift away from Russian suppliers, the budget includes funds for the Russian S-400 air defence system.

• Australia is reportedly seeking billions in investments to bring mining and midstream projects on line after joining the G7 critical minerals production alliance. Australia and New Zealand are also deepening defence ties in a number of areas including defence industrial cooperation under Anzac 2035.

• Indonesia: cancelled the KRI Bima Suci’s transit to Canada and ten other countries and will be focused just on East Asia and commences exercises with the Russia Navy.

• Taiwan: China positions obsolete supersonic fighters that have been converted to attack drones close to the Taiwan strait. Defence budget impasse continues as visiting US lawmakers urge Taipei to approve the budget.

Events

CADSI Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Outlooks 2026 | 7-9 April 2026 | Ottawa (Rogers Centre Ottawa) |

DSA and NATSEC Asia 2026 | 20-23 April 2026 | Kuala Lumpur |

Singapore Maritime Week (SMW) 2026 | 20-24 April 2026 | Singapore |

Milipol TechX (MTX) 2026 | 28-30 April 2026 | Singapore (Sands Expo and Convention Centre / Marina Bay Sands) |

The New Maritime Battlespace: Threats, Technology, and the Future of Canadian Naval Operations | Royal United Services Institute of New Brunswick | 5 May 2026 | St. John, New Brunswick, Canada |

AUSA LANPAC Symposium & Exposition 2026 | 12-14 May 2026 | Honolulu |

Indian Ocean Defence & Security (IODS) 2026 | 26-28 May 2026 | Perth |

CANSEC 2026 | 27-28 May 2026 | Ottawa (EY Centre) |

Shangri-La Dialogue (IISS Asia Security Summit) | 29-31 May 2026 | Singapore |

Critical Minerals for Defence | 9-10 June 2026 | Toronto |

Naval Defense Philippines / PhilMarine 2026 | 17-19 June 2026 | Manila (SMX Convention Center) |

SANS Cyber Defence Singapore 2026 | Starts 29 June 2026 | Singapore |

Anything to add? Did we miss something? Reach out.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran as the US rips through years worth of weapons stockpiles in weeks without the ability to rapidly replace them. Recent discussions of repositioning missile defence assets from South Korea to the Middle East has been met with trepidation. The Indo-Pacific implications of the Iranian conflict are still emerging and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific is being shaped by the wars in Ukraine and the Gulf. These conflicts are also exposing the hard limits of magazine depth, production capacity, force availability and policy attention. Against this backdrop Beijing is increasing its defence budget, expanding industrial output combined with a broader state-led push to fuse civilian and military innovation. In the midst of this great power competition, there are opportunities for Canada as countries in the region seek to diversify their supply base and partnerships as gaps emerge in the US’ approach to the region. Canada continues rolling out DIS announcements including ~$900M for an NRC drone centre of excellence, but it’s unclear how Canada will manage and avoid hostile supply chains for key components (batteries, electronics etc) . PM Carney wraps his Indo-Pacific tour and Japan operationalizes its counterstrike strategy while signalling intent to join Golden Dome. India sends mixed signals with a $236M Russian Shtil-1 deal days after Carney’s visit. Australia becomes the first nation after the US to produce GMLRS for HIMARS and Singapore keeps a keen eye on lessons from the Strait of Hormuz as Gulf tensions put energy security in focus.

SUMMARY OF WHAT TO WATCH

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

• US-Iran conflict and Indo-Pacific spillover: Washington is burning through precision munitions and has repositioned missile defence out of South Korea. Watch for tests of US force posture and when the Trump/Xi meeting occurs

• Japan Golden Dome request and missile deployments: Tokyo expected to formally request Golden Dome participation March 19. HVGP and Type-12 deploy March 31. Watch whether Canada comments or publicly supports.

• Taiwan arms deadlines: HIMARS LOA expires March 26. The broader special budget remains politically stuck as Washington balances Taiwan procurement against Trump-Xi summit dynamics.

Medium-Term (2026)

• Defence Industrial Strategy: follow-through in the Indo-Pacific: Will the drone centre of excellence secure reliable non-hostile supply chains for critical components? Will Indo-Pacific firms from Japan, South Korea, and Australia make the Partner tier, or does Europe dominate?

• Canada-Australia resources & critical minerals: Combined, the two countries would rank top five in almost every major commodity. Saskatchewan’s rare earth processing is an underappreciated asset. Watch whether momentum translates into joint processing, stockpiling, and direct outreach to OEMs and suppliers

Strategic (2026+)

• Allied production capacity as a structural constraint: The Iran and Ukraine conflicts demonstrate the Western alliance cannot sustain high-intensity operations for a meaningful duration. Countries that produce munitions and critical components at scale will be structurally advantaged, however, there is a cost to maintaining capacity.

• Middle-power coherence: The Defence Industrial Strategy, Japan ETTA, Korea 2+2, Australia minerals alignment, are pieces of a variable-geometry architecture. Can Ottawa weave them into a coherent Indo-Pacific posture or do they remain a collection of bilateral announcements?

CANADA: Announcements continue to roll out, PM wraps Indo-Pacific tour and critical minerals take center stage

• Major Announcements Continue: Several big announcements this week on the heels of the Defence Industrial Strategy including PM Carney’s announcement to defend, build and transform the North; announcement of ~$900M for the creation of a drone center of excellence at the National Research Council while a new industry association is launched called the Alliance of Canadian Defence Companies (ACDC) (Feb announcement) aims to shape procurement reform. Ontario announced the appointment of a Bernie Derible as Defence Representative in the Indo-Pacific to secure investment and position Ontario as a trusted supplier of defence equipment and technology. EDC highlights growing defence presence.

• PM Wraps Indo-Pacific Tour: Carney used his India, Japan, and Australia trip to advance defence, critical minerals, technology, and supply-chain resilience initiatives. Canada expresses interest in Indian Ocean Rim Association as India sees benefits for cooperation on Maritime Domain Awareness initiatives.

• Resource & Critical Mineral Cooperation Opportunities: According to recent report from PerthUS Asia Center on Canada Australia cooperation co-authored by Heather Exener-Pirot, Andrew Pickford and Wolfgang Alschner, if Australia and Canada combined forces, they would “would rank in the top 5 of almost every major commodity.” Given Canada’s endowments and the rare earth processing facility in Saskatchewan, will we seize the moment? It looks like it with new agreements signed, and a clear case for engagement with OEMs that need reliable sources of supply. See table below.

Watch: Will Canada’s drone center of excellence look to build capacity at home, partner and secure reliable sources of supply for critical components (electronics, batteries etc) and encourage Canadian firms to avoid hostile supply chains as it builds capability? How will Canada focus its attention in the Indo-Pacific with the growing myriad of engagements and commitments? There is a lot of energy and momentum, but will there be follow through?

JAPAN Export reorientation continues, Golden Dome and missile deployments emerge

• Japan’s export reorientation continues: Japan pivots to dual-use technology as the foundation of a new defence industrial strategy.

• Golden Dome, Counter Strike Strategy & Preparing for Missile Deployments: Counterstrike Strategy: Japan is seeking to join Trump’s Golden Dome missile defence project and is expected to formally make the request on 19 March amidst reports of Japan’s Type-12 surface to ship upgraded long range (1000KM range) missile developed by MHI advancing deployment timelines amid China tensions amid news that Japan will also be deploying a Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile Capability by 31 March of this year.

Watch: How will Trump react to the Golden Dome request? Will Canada comment or publicly support the Japanese request?

INDIA Draft acquisition policy takes shape, PMs advance cooperation on defence

• Draft Acquisition Policy: Analysts are starting to digest the new Defence Acquisition Policy (released in Feb). Notable changes in the draft include a transition from “Make in India” to “Owned by India” and eased FDI pathways. The draft was released February 10 with a feedback deadline of March 3; final policy is expected April 1. However, the market remains challenging and complex for many foreign suppliers, highlighting the need for securing the right partnerships for market entry (both Israel and France have had tremendous success in the market over the years despite these challenges potentially offering different playbooks to follow).

• Defence Industrial Cooperation Opportunities: PM Carney’s recent visit and ambitious program for cooperation starts to take shape, however mixed signals and market complexity are likely to slow down practical cooperation. For example, on March 3, the day after Carney departed, India signed a $236M deal for Russian Shtil-1 missiles, though the procurement had been in negotiation since the DAC approved it in March 2025. Analysts note the Shtil-1 complements rather than replaces the Barak-8, covering smaller vessels at lower cost. The prevalence of Russian equipment in India’s inventory is generally declining, but still plays a central role.

Watch: what’s the follow through after the PM’s visit? Will there be an announcement for a General Security of Information Agreement? What role will the Australia, Canada and India Technology and Innovation Partnership play in all this, if any?

AUSTRALIA: Canada gains traction in Canberra, defence industrial momentum builds and AUKUS implementation advances

• PM Carney Addresses Parliament: Carney used his address to both Houses of Australia’s Parliament to frame Canada as a serious Indo-Pacific partner, emphasizing defence, economic security, critical minerals, trusted supply chains, and deeper strategic cooperation with Australia. Commentary and analysis this week suggest Canada is beginning to register more clearly with Australian policymakers as a useful partner in reducing strategic risk, particularly in critical minerals, defence industrial resilience, and broader Indo-Pacific burden-sharing.

• Australia’s Defence Industrial Base Continues to Move: Australia is accelerating the use of uncrewed surface vessels for maritime surveillance and operations, while also becoming the first country after the United States to produce GMLRS missiles for HIMARS, marking another step forward in sovereign munitions production.

• AUKUS Advances Despite Pillar II Friction: Even as analysts continue to warn that export controls, ITAR, and governance issues are slowing progress on Pillar II, implementation on pillar I is moving ahead, highlighted by the first-ever UK submarine maintenance period in Australia under AUKUS at HMAS Stirling.

Watch: Whether Canberra and Ottawa can translate growing strategic alignment into practical cooperation on munitions, critical minerals, defence technology, and supply-chain integration — and whether AUKUS Pillar II can overcome persistent policy and export-control bottlenecks.

TAIWAN: Budget impasse partially eased, stalled US arms LOAs move forward and special defence package remains contested

• Parliament Partially Breaks Deadlock: Taiwan’s parliament approved a major US arms deal and authorized the government to sign four previously stalled US letters of offer and acceptance before the March 15/26 deadlines. However, the broader NT$1.25 trillion special defence budget remains politically contested, with disputes continuing over scope, sequencing, and the opposition’s counter-proposals even as pressure mounts to accelerate procurement

• Unusual Pause in PLA Aircraft Activity: Chinese military flights around Taiwan ceased for nearly two weeks in an unusual break from Beijing’s routine pressure campaign, fuelling speculation about a tactical recalibration even as PLA naval activity continued

Watch: What are the implications of US strategic attention being on Iran? What will crop up? What are the implications of President Trump pushing off his meeting with President Xi Jingping by a month?

OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

South Korea: Seoul advances strategic investment push. South Korea’s parliament passed a US$350 billion Special Investment Act on March 12 (226 votes in favour), establishing a state-run investment corporation. While broader than defence alone, the scale and sectoral focus make it relevant to allied industrial capacity, shipbuilding, supply chains, and strategic economic security.

Thailand: Cobra Gold highlights space and cyber cooperation. Cobra Gold 2026 has wrapped, with reporting emphasizing the growing role of space and cyber cooperation within major Indo-Pacific exercises. The trend points to a broader regional shift toward integrating digital, cyber, and space-enabled capabilities into alliance and partner defence planning.

Philippines: Manila and Seoul deepen defence industrial cooperation. The Philippines and South Korea pledged closer cooperation on geopolitics, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, shipbuilding, and defence industries, giving Manila another avenue to diversify defence partnerships and strengthen industrial ties with a major regional supplier. The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada hosted a Track 1.5 dialogue on Economic Security.

Indonesia: BrahMos purchase marks major defence export deal. Indonesia has confirmed that it has finalized its BrahMos missile purchase from India,(Brahmos is based on the Russian P-800 Oniks) marking a significant Indo-Indian defence export breakthrough and reinforcing Southeast Asia’s role as a growing market for high-end missile and strike capabilities.

Singapore: Strait of Hormuz risks put energy security in focus. Singapore is watching the Strait of Hormuz closely as Gulf tensions drive up energy prices and raise concern over business costs and fuel security. Current US operations in Iran are a reminder that maritime chokepoints, shipping disruption, and energy vulnerability remain core strategic issues. Export Development Canada and Plenary Pacific signed an MOU. While not a central focus, Plenary does appear to have a history of investment in defence infrastructure. Was defence addressed in the MOU?

Events:

APF Canada Track 1.5 India-Canada Dialogue | 5 March 2026 | New Delhi |

Asia Pacific Maritime (APM) 2026 | 25-27 March 2026 | Singapore (Marina Bay Sands) |

CADSI Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Outlooks 2026 | 7-9 April 2026 | Ottawa |

DSA and NATSEC Asia 2026 | 20-23 April 2026 | Kuala Lumpur |

Singapore Maritime Week (SMW) 2026 | 20-24 April 2026 | Singapore |

The New Maritime Battlespace: Threats, Technology, and the Future of Canadian Naval Operations | Royal United Services Institute of New Brunswick | 5 May | St. John New Brunswick Canada

AUSA LANPAC Symposium & Exposition 2026 | 12-14 May 2026 | Honolulu |

Indian Ocean Defence & Security (IODS) 2026 | 26-28 May 2026 | Perth |

CANSEC 2026 | 27-28 May 2026 | Ottawa (EY Centre) |

Shangri-La Dialogue (IISS Asia Security Summit) | 29-31 May 2026 | Singapore |

Critical Minerals for Defence | Toronto 9-10 June | Toronto

Naval Defense Philippines / PhilMarine 2026 | 17-19 June 2026 | Manila (SMX Convention Center) |

SANS Cyber Defence Singapore 2026 | Starts 29 June 2026 | Singapore |

Canadian Industrial Base Atlas

Over the last several months we’ve been developing an analytical base of Canadian defence and dual use firms supporting key sovereign capability areas, what domains and market segments they address, employees, key export markets and more. If you’re interested in learning more or collaborating on this effort, get in touch.

Accelerated Procurement, Grants & Diversification Opportunity Tracker

Becoming the Export and Partnership Radar…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

US launches strikes in Iran. Will it result in overextension and create opportunities for Beijing in the Indo-Pacific? Canada launches its first Defence Industrial Strategy at CAE in Montreal with a “Build–Partner–Buy” framework targeting 70% domestic procurement and 50% export growth. Critics note the Indo-Pacific despite growth focus is underweighted relative to Europe. Ministers McGuinty and Anand hold defence bilaterals with Japan, Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand at Munich after PM Carney cancels his trip. The Canada South Korea 2+2 in Ottawa produces a classified information sharing agreement, Defence Cooperation Agreement negotiations, and new Space and Cyber dialogue channels as Seoul pitches for Canada’s submarine project. Japan continues loosening export restrictions under PM Takaichi while absorbing new Chinese sanctions on 40 defence firms. PM Carney visits India, Australia and Japan (Feb 27–Early March) as New Delhi clears ₹3.6 lakh crore (roughly equivalent to ~$55B CAD+) in capital acquisitions while staging MILAN and International Fleet Review 2026, . Australia advances AUKUS submarine industrialization with UK SSN HMS Anson arriving in Western Australia alongside energetic materials R&D and counter-drone partnerships. Indonesia confirms KRI Bima Suci will visit Saint John, Canada under Operasi Kartika Jala Krida 2026. Malaysia launches “Future Force” 2026–2030 transformation amid sustained South China Sea pressure.

SUMMARY OF WHAT TO WATCH

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

• US strikes on Iran raise risk of strategic overextension: With the US expanding operations against Iran (CENTCOM reporting large-scale strikes and early US casualties), Washington’s bandwidth and force posture in the Middle East may tighten potentially creating diplomatic and security “white space” that Beijing can exploit. See deployment of USS Gerald Ford & USS Abraham Lincoln and analysis here.

• PM Carney Indo-Pacific Travel (Feb 27–Early March): Visits to India, Australia, and Japan watch for defence-industrial deliverables, particularly under the Japan Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement signed in January.

• Canada–ROK 2+2 Follow-Through: Frameworks signed (classified information, DCA negotiations, Space Dialogue, Cyber Consultations in March). Watch whether Korea’s submarine bid and dual-use tech collaboration produce near-term industrial outputs.

Medium-Term (2026)

• DIS Takes Shape: Defence Investment Agency legislation expected Spring 2026; domestic strategic partner framework due by summer. For foreign partnerships, watch whether Indo-Pacific firms are included (or considered for partnership) or if Europe dominates.

• Korea Submarine Competition Intensifies: Hanwha’s expanding Canadian alliances (CAE, BlackBerry, Algoma Steel, L3Harris Canada, Hydrogen investments and more) and fastest-delivery claims create competitive pressure alongside Seoul’s parallel nuclear submarine push.

Strategic (2026+)

• DIS Indo-Pacific Gap as Strategic Risk: The 50% export growth and 240% revenue targets cannot be met through Europe alone. Rapidly expanding Indo-Pacific procurement pipelines and export capabilities are essential (particularly South Korea which is on track to become the 4^th largest defence exporter by 2030). APF Canada’s critique that the DIS “needs an Indo-Pacific gear”.

• Japan as Emerging Defence-Industrial Partner: The Security Information Agreement (July 2025) and Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement (January 2026) create a new legal framework. Combined with loosening export restrictions and mutual interest in space, cyber, and undersea capabilities, Tokyo is a consequential partner but concrete industrial tie-ups remain to be delivered.

• Middle-Power Coalition Forming: Carney’s “rupture” framing, the DIS’s strategic autonomy emphasis, the EU SAFE agreement, deepening Korea partnership, and Japan frameworks are pieces of a broader architecture, will it coalesce into something coherent?

CANADA: Defence Industrial Strategy Unveiled, PM Operationalizing Variable Geometry, Operation Nanook

• Defence Industrial Strategy Unveiled: The Build–Partner–Buy framework names 10 sovereign capability focus areas (including aerospace, training and simulation, drones, and ammunition) and commits to directing 70% of defence spending to Canadian suppliers by 2030 (up from ~40%), increasing defence exports by 50%, and creating 125,000 new jobs. (Very ambitious policy, well done). For Canadian exporters, GAC support commitments and explicit mention of Indo-Pacific partners create tailwinds. For Indo-Pacific suppliers, the strategy’s emphasis on diversifying away from U.S. dependence and openness to partnering with “certain nations in the Indo-Pacific” creates a window. Firms from Japan, South Korea, and Australia can enter as Partner-tier collaborators, particularly where capability gaps exist in areas such as drones.

• Prime Minister Carney Continues Trade Blitz: The PM announced travel to India, Australia, and Japan in late February and early March to shore up trade relationships as Canada continues its diversification push.

  

• Defence Focus and Momentum Continues Across Government: Operation Nanook commences with commitments to enhance Arctic focus; IDEaS CUAS Sandbox Awards announced; engagement with Indo-Pacific partners at the Munich Security Conference, including bilaterals with Japan, Singapore, New Zealand, and Australia.

Watch: How will Canada balance the Build–Partner–Buy framework? What areas will the government prioritize for partnering? What concrete outputs will emerge from engagements in India, Japan, and Australia?

JAPAN Continued Loosening of Export Restrictions Amid Chinese Sanctions, Strong Exercise Cadence

• Export Restrictions Lifting Amid Chinese Sanctions: Recent proposals at the highest levels of the Takaichi government would allow exportation of significant weapon systems, notable given Japan’s constitutional constraints on military exports. This comes as China announced additional restrictions on 40 Japanese defence firms.

• Strengthening Intelligence Frameworks: Japan announced plans to enhance its foreign intelligence collection capabilities while bolstering counter-espionage measures domestically. Notable given conclusion of the Canada–Japan Security Information Agreement in July 2025.

• High Exercise Cadence: Japan participated in Iron Fist 26; Japan–US IAMD drills; B-52 fighter sorties; JMSDF-US IW/EMW drill; Japan-US-Philippines maritime drill; Japan-India-Indonesia exercise; IFR 2026; Japan-Australia RAS; Japan-Philippines COMMEX/PHOTOEX.

Watch: What further adjustments will Japan make to its defence export regime? How will Chinese sanctions affect Japanese industrial output and capabilities? Will Canada expand operational cooperation given the apparent Japanese appetite and capability to conduct exercises? What will come out of the PMs visit from March?

SOUTH KOREA Canada–ROK 2+2 Deepens Defence Ties, Submarine Industrial Push, Defence Startup Scale-Up, Freedom Shield Set

• Canada–ROK “2+2” Operationalizes Bilateral Defence Cooperation: Ottawa hosted a foreign/defence 2+2 that reaffirmed strategic alignment and produced concrete cooperation signals, including frameworks enabling deeper defence collaboration. For Canada’s DIS “Partner” lane, this could provide an umbrella for co-development, sustainment partnerships, and reciprocal industrial participation especially in naval, cyber/space, and supply-chain resilience areas. But Canada’s not the only one pursuing S. Korea, as the UAE and S. Korea ink a $35B MOU.

• ROK Undersea Ambition + Canada’s Submarine Program: Seoul is moving domestically to enable nuclear-powered submarine ambitions while simultaneously campaigning for Canada’s submarine replacement.

• Tensions, Defence Innovation and Export Momentum Accelerates: Tensions continue with N. Korea. Korea is standing up a defence startup pipeline (targeting 100 by 2030) while demonstrating global-scale industrial partnering (e.g., $35B UAE MOU) and combined readiness with the U.S. (Freedom Shield announced for March). For Canada, this underscores both opportunity and competitive pressure as Korea’s export machine increasingly shapes global procurement expectations.

Watch: Will Canada treat Korea as a “Partner” for submarines (local build + sovereign sustainment), and will the 2+2 produce near-term industrial deliverables?

SINGAPORE DSTA Diversification Drive, Cap Vista Battery Call, Total Defence Resilience, Digital Defence Infrastructure

• DSTA Diversifies Defence-Tech Sourcing: DSTA is widening scouting to Japan, South Korea, the Nordics, and parts of Eastern Europe, pairing diversification with deeper industry “partnership” models to speed test-and-deploy. For Canada, this is a clear entry signal for dual-use suppliers positioned as alternative trusted sources. Budget 2026 includes predictable spending growth and focus.

• Significant Opportunities for Innovative Dual-Use Firms: The Energy Joint Challenge seeks early detection of Li-ion anomalies and thermal-runaway containment for maritime environments, with April 2026 awards an actionable near-term pathway for Canadian battery safety, sensing, and maritime engineering firms. Other opportunities include Open Innovation Challenges with awards up to $400K.

• Total Defence Emphasis Culminates 15 February: Total Defence Day anchors Exercise SG Ready 2026 (1–15 Feb), using islandwide simulated disruptions (power and digital) and SAFRA-linked activities to train civil-military readiness a practical model for critical-infrastructure resilience.

Watch: Will Canadian firms pick up on DSTA’s diversification push? Will Cap Vista’s maritime battery challenge scale into broader naval platform safety standards or programs of record such as the Victory Class Missile Corvettes?

INDIA Canada–India Reset Under Security Constraints, Mega-Scale Modernization, Naval Signalling, Co-Production Momentum

• Reset + Guardrails on Security: PM Carney’s Feb 27–Mar 2 visit signals a pragmatic bilateral reset, but former national security adviser Vincent Rigby warns Ottawa cannot ignore ongoing security concerns. APF Canada is convening a Track 1.5 India–Canada defence/security dialogue in New Delhi (March 5).

• Massive Force Modernization Pipeline: India cleared ₹3.60 lakh crore in capital acquisition proposals and signed a HAL contract for eight Dornier 228s for the Coast Guard reinforcing a procurement surge that will shape Indo-Pacific balance

• Maritime Coalition-Building at Scale: India’s International Fleet Review 2026 and MILAN 2026 exercise underline New Delhi’s intent to lead multilateral naval signalling important context for Canada’s Indo-Pacific naval planning and partner interoperability.

  

• Industrial Co-Production Accelerates (France Model) + Indigenous Platforms: India–France defence dialogue renewed a 10-year cooperation frame with Rafale/missile co-production ambitions. India also commissioned INS Anjadip (indigenous ASW shallow-water craft), reinforcing the “Make in India” direction that will increasingly shape partnership terms.

Watch: Will the Carney visit and APF Track 1.5 in Delhi produce concrete defence deliverables without triggering renewed security blowback?

AUSTRALIA AUKUS Industrialization Accelerates, Indo-Pacific Presence Signalling, Defence Innovation + Munitions/CUAS Capacity

• AUKUS Undersea Build-Out Moves to Long-Lead Execution: Australia committed major funding to progress the Osborne nuclear-sub shipyard, hosted UK SSN HMS Anson for a maintenance period in Western Australia, and approved long-lead nuclear-propulsion items hardening the regional SSN sustainment/production ecosystem.

• Persistent Indo-Pacific Operational Signalling: ADF executed visible maritime/air activities, HMAS Toowoomba South China Sea transit, trilateral maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and US, and RAAF P-8A missions from the Philippines, under a 2026 Regional Presence Deployments rhythm aligned with Canada’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific maritime posture.

• Industrial Mobilization, Munitions, Venture Capital, Autonomy/CUAS: Australia launched an energetic materials R&D network for GWEO capacity, sought up to A$500M VC co-investment for defence innovation, ran AUKUS “Maritime Big Play” autonomy/UUV/EW experimentation, and signed a 3-year DSTG–DroneShield counter-drone R&D partnership.

Watch: How will infrastructure investments be rolled out and who will manage them? Is there an opportunity to cooperate with Australia on energetics and materials? Does action on Pillar 2 mean it’s maturing into something useful? What will come out of the PMs visit from 3 March?

NEW ZEALAND Force Modernization on Drones + Tech Futures, Pacific Ops Tempo, Readiness and Governance Reforms

• Modernization Direction, Drones + Long-Range Tech Outlook: NZ signalled a practical unmanned pathway, buying and trialling NZ-made air/land/sea drones alongside a Long-Term Insights Briefing on defence technology beyond 2035. For Canada, this frames interoperability expectations in a Five Eyes-adjacent partner and highlights UxS collaboration channels.
  

  

• Pacific Operational Activity: NZDF ran a tri-service South-West Pacific deployment (Operation Calypso with HMNZS Canterbury) and investigated a reported HMNZS Manawanui fuel sheen.

Watch: Where are there common areas of interest between NZ and Canada between the Long-Term Insights Briefing and the Defence Industrial Strategy? Human Machine Teaming, UxS see a logical starting point.

OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Indonesia — KRI Bima Suci Confirms Transatlantic Voyage: On February 25, the Indonesian Navy confirmed that KRI Bima Suci will depart Surabaya in March 2026 on an international goodwill voyage under Operasi Kartika Jala Krida 2026, (Thanks to Fauzan Malufti for flagging!) crossing the Mediterranean and Atlantic to call at Norfolk, Baltimore, New York, and Boston in the United States, as well as Saint John, Canada, before returning by October 9, 2026.
  

  

• Vietnam — 3rd International Defence Exhibition: On February 26, Vietnam’s Ministry of National Defence held a preparatory conference for the 3rd Vietnam International Defence Expo, themed “Peace, Friendship, Cooperation and Development,” to be organized on a larger scale with live field demonstrations, product exhibitions, and business networking. The expo signals Vietnam’s growing ambition as a defence industry player.

• Malaysia — “Future Force” Military Transformation Amid South China Sea Pressures: The Malaysian Armed Forces positioned the “Future Force” development phase (2026–2030) as the central thrust of military transformation. Malaysia’s navy is set to receive Norwegian-made anti-ship and land-attack missiles, with Turkey’s Atmaca anti-ship missile system also expected by 2028.

• Philippines — Fleet Modernization Accelerates Amid Fighter Deadlock: The Philippine Navy commissioned OPV BRP Rajah Sulayman (PS-20) at Subic Bay on February 24, delivered nearly five months early by HD Hyundai, with Canadian firm GeoSpectrum Technologies supplying towed-array sonar for three of the six OPVs. The $5.58B F-16 Block 70/72 negotiation remains stalled on funding, though the U.S. Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act may unlock fiscal space.

Events:

APF Canada Track 1.5 India–Canada Dialogue | 5 March 2026 | New Delhi |

Asia Pacific Maritime (APM) 2026 | 25–27 March 2026 | Singapore (Marina Bay Sands) |

CADSI Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Outlooks 2026 | 7–9 April 2026 | Ottawa |

DSA and NATSEC Asia 2026 | 20–23 April 2026 | Kuala Lumpur |

Singapore Maritime Week (SMW) 2026 | 20–24 April 2026 | Singapore |

AUSA LANPAC Symposium & Exposition 2026 | 12–14 May 2026 | Honolulu |

Indian Ocean Defence & Security (IODS) 2026 | 26–28 May 2026 | Perth |

CANSEC 2026 | 27–28 May 2026 | Ottawa (EY Centre) |

Shangri-La Dialogue (IISS Asia Security Summit) | 29–31 May 2026 | Singapore |

Naval Defense Philippines / PhilMarine 2026 | 17–19 June 2026 | Manila (SMX Convention Center)

SANS Cyber Defence Singapore 2026 | Starts 29 June 2026 | Singapore

Accelerated Procurement, Grants & Diversification Opportunity Tracker

Update Forthcoming in Future Editions…

Singapore Airshow becomes Indo-Pacific defence industrial marketplace as China projects presence, Russia is absent, and US engagement and sales continue. Japan election results in a majority for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, announcement of Technology Transfer Agreement with Canada and North Wind 26 joint Arctic training occurs. South Korea hosts Secretary of State Fuhr and two dozen Canadian defence CEOs as Hanwha competes across submarines, space (Telesat and MDA partnerships), and steel signaling Korea’s multi-sector play for Canadian markets. Canada continues high-level security dialogue with India as India signs a major U.S. trade deal on the heals of a similar deal with the EU. Philippines escalates South China Sea diplomatic protests. Taiwan’s Defence Minister warns against complacency amid sustained PRC pressure and excercises. Australia deploys frigates region-wide as Canada’s HMCS Charlottetown also departs Halifax. Australia launches defence estate review as AIRmarket-CiTech MOU demonstrates growing Canada-Australia collaboration in critical infrastructure.

Summary of Critical Information & Key Action Items For Policy Makers and Industry Executives

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

• Singapore momentum capture: Convert Singapore Airshow engagements into follow on, MOUs and opportunities. Watch for direction of Singapore’s new National Space Agency (launches April 1).

• South Korea & Secretary of State Fuhr visit follow-through: Secretary of State Fuhr’s January 30–February 6 visit positioned as Indo-Pacific Strategy alignment. Watch for outputs from the CEO delegation meetings and Hanwha submarine competition. Watch for other tie ups given Telesat-Hanwha (Jan 26) and MDA-Hanwha space MOUs.

Medium-Term (2026)

• Japan Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement signed. Exercise North Wind 26 proves operational interoperability in Arctic conditions; will this be a focus area for Canada Japan cooperation?

• India opportunity landscape shift: EU, and then U.S. trade deal (Feb 3) and growing investment drives urgency to secure market access for non-U.S. and European suppliers. High-level Canada-India security engagement (Feb 2026) occurs despite tensions, will this opens defence industrial channels? Watch the upcoming PM visit.

Strategic (2026+)

• Great-power signaling at Singapore Airshow: China’s fighter flypast and platform marketing versus U.S. presence and prodding of J-35 capabilities. Russia’s continued absence from Asia’s largest airshow probably confirms arms-export sector constraints. Will Chinese presence translate into greater sales and engagement in the region?

• Singapore as partnership & capability-building model: Deliberate “defence industry day” programming with Japan (unmanned, quantum, space focus areas) and Estonia (ST Engineering-Vegvisir teaming) and many others offering a model for diverse partnerships and engagements. Canada’s Asia Pacific Foundation roundtable shows presence and needs follow through.

SINGAPORE: Regional air & space hub showcasing deal making and innovation

• Space Summit And National Space Agency Launch: Singapore announced the National Space Agency of Singapore, to be established April 1, 2026 under the Ministry of Trade and Industry—positioning space policy, regulation, and capability-building as a national economic/security enabler. Key items include ~70 space-related companies and ~2,000 employees in the ecosystem.

• Singapore Airshow as Global Convening Point: The region’s flagship aerospace and defence event wrapped this past week pulling in 65,000 trade show participants, and strong representation from 40+ Canadian companies.

• Great-Power Signaling On The Show Floor: China used the airshow to project both military and commercial aerospace credibility (including prominent platform marketing), and participation in the flying display.

while the U.S. footprint was framed as comparatively muted in narrative coverage except for Palmer Luckey’s (Anduril) measurement of an AVIC J-35. Russia was completely absent reinforcing perceptions of an arms-export sector under pressure and increasingly constrained access to major international fora.

• Bonanza Of Industrial Engagement And Partnerships: A dense cluster of roundtables, “defence industry day” programming, and firm-to-firm tie-ups indicates Singapore’s deliberate strategy and reach. Key items include: Canada Singapore Defence Industrial Roundtable hosted by Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; Singapore–Japan Defence Industry Day; Estonia–Singapore Defence Industry Day; RTX / Pratt & Whitney Canada investments; Shield AI + ST Engineering autonomy collaboration on autonomy and swarm/teaming optimisation concepts; CAE training push: positioning its Integrated Learning Environment for Indo-Pacific customers.

Watch: How visibly will China’s aerospace push at Singapore Airshow affects Southeast Asian procurement over the next 6–18 months? How much follow through will there be on various MOUs, industry days and other engagements?

JAPAN: Election results & joint exercise

• Landslide election victory strengthens Prime Minister Takaichi’s mandate: Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a decisive victory in snap elections on February 8, 2026, winning 316 of 465 seats and achieving a historic two-thirds supermajority in the lower house. This overwhelming mandate strengthens the government’s position on defence and security policy and provides a solid foundation for advancing bilateral cooperation with Canada.

• Joint winter combat training exercise North Wind 26: Canadian and Japanese forces participated in training rehearsals as part of Exercise North Wind 26 a US-Japan ex., demonstrating growing operational cooperation in cold weather environments.

Watch: With the election out of the way, what other avenues of engagement might be pursued? Is Exercise North Wind a sign of a potential focus area for cooperation? i.e., arctic and cold weather operations?

SOUTH KOREA: More tie ups and MOU’s in advance of a Team Canada trade mission

• More Visits: Defence Procurement Secretary of State Fuhr announced an official visit to the Republic of Korea (January 30–February 6, 2026), alongside Canadian business delegation brings two dozen defence CEOs to Seoul, this all in advance of what appears to be a huge Team Canada trade mission.

• More Industrial Tie Ups: Telesat and Hanwha sign strategic cooperation agreement covering next-generation space and marine technologies. This partnership expands bilateral collaboration beyond traditional defence sectors into dual-use technology areas. Meanwhile MDA Space and Hanwha signed a Memorandum of Understanding to pursue the Korean military constellation program, strengthening space-based defence cooperation. This MOU positions Canadian space technology companies to participate in South Korea’s military satellite programs. Algoma Steel secured a deal with Hanwha, expanding Korean investment in Canada’s industrial base with potential defence industrial implications.

Watch: Who else is Hanwha going to sign on with? How will Secretary of State Fuhr’s visit shape Canada’s approach to submarine procurement and other major defence projects? Will TKMS’ Canadian Defence & Dual Use Innovation Ecosystem CDDE be enough to counter this?

INDIA: Trade breakthroughs intensify competition and urgency for engagement

• India unveils defence budget with increased allocations: India’s Ministry of Defence announced its budget allocation, signaling continued investment in defence modernization and capability development.

• India announces major trade deal with United States: On the heels of a trade agreement with Europe, India announced a comprehensive trade deal with the United States on February 3, 2026, with India’s commitment to buy U.S. goods including petroleum, defence equipment, and aircraft.

• High-level Canada-India security engagement takes place: Meeting was held between Canada’s Minister of Public Safety, Canada’s Deputy Clerk and National Security and Intelligence Advisor to the Prime Minister, and India’s national security leadership in February 2026. Formalizes cooperation on cybersecurity policy and information sharing.

Watch: How will India’s U.S. trade deal affect Canadian defence companies’ access to the Indian market? Will the high-level security engagement lead to renewed defence cooperation or industrial partnerships between Canada and India? What specific defence modernization priorities in India’s budget present opportunities for Canadian technology or equipment?

AUSTRALIA: Naval deployments, infrastructure review and a new critical infrastructure focused MOU

• Navy ANZAC-class frigates depart for regional presence deployments: Australian Navy ANZAC-class frigates departed on February 3, 2026, for Australia’s first Regional Presence Deployments of 2026.

• Australia launches defence estate infrastructure review: On February 4, 2026, Australia announced a comprehensive review of its defence estate infrastructure to support future capability requirements.

• AIRmarket and CiTech sign MOU for drone defence applications: Canadian company AIRmarket and Australian firm Critical Infrastructure Technologies (CiTech) executed a Memorandum of Understanding on January 26, 2026, covering drone-enabled airspace management for defence and public safety use cases.

CANADA: Defence Industrial Strategy pending

• Anticipation of National Defence Industrial Strategy (NDIS): Rumours intensified this week that the Carney government will officially launch Canada’s first comprehensive Defence Industrial Strategy as early as next week (mid-February 2026)

Other Regional Developments:

• Philippines lodges firm representations with China over rhetoric escalation: On January 26, 2026, the Philippines filed formal diplomatic protests with the Chinese embassy over escalating rhetoric regarding the South China Sea

• Taiwan defence minister cautions against becoming numb to China drills: Taiwan's Defence Minister warned on February 5, 2026, that Taiwan risks becoming desensitized to China's military drills and emphasized the urgency of the security threat

UPCOMING EVENTS

Space Summit 2026 | February 2-3 | Singapore

Singapore Airshow 2026 | February 3-6 | Singapore

Canada-in-Asia Conference 2026 | February 10-11 | Singapore

Subsea Security & Defence 2026 | February 10-13 | Singapore

DSA and NATSEC Asia | 20-23 April | Kuala Lumpur

Shangri-La Dialogue | May 29 – 31 | Singapore

Accelerated Procurement, Grants & Diversification Opportunity Tracker

Update Forthcoming in Future Editions…

Did we miss something? If so, let us know.

Carney doctrine (world is getting more brutal, middle powers should work together to avoid being victims of great power competition) rolls out at Davos ; PM’s 2026 trade blitz will lean into the Indo-Pacific. Singapore builds capability with P-8A purchase in advance of the Singapore Airshow (see you there!) Taiwan faces sustained gray-zone pressure, and moves into 155mm co-production. India makes a big purchase and is likely to ease restrictions on defence FDI as Canada lines up critical minerals engagement. Japan and Canada operationalize security of information agreement by trading diplomatic notes; Japan may head into snap election. South Korea (officially) launches next-gen EW aircraft effort, and will host Team Canada trade mission as Hanwha and TKMS escalate Canada plays. Australia likely to see Canadian PM visit in March; Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN) and hypersonic defence remain quiet, but for how long? Philippines provides live Canadian export proof point: GeoSpectrum Technologies Inc.’s Towed Reelable Active Passive Sonar (TRAPS) in new Patrol vessel amidst ongoing CAF cyber training.

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Summary of Critical Information & Key Action Items For Policy Makers and Industry Executives

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

Singapore window: Convert upcoming Singapore Airshow and Canada-in-Asia meetings into concrete announceables, partnerships and opportunities.

South Korea trade mission prep: Build focused ROK prospect list around major S. Korean export priorities. Carry proof point of successful industrial collaboration—GeoSpectrum’s TRAPS export on Philippine OPVs manufactured by South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries. Explore opportunities on recently announced EW program.

Medium-Term (2026)

Carney trade blitz: Prioritize stops with emerging levers like shared interests (Singapore) information-sharing now in force (Japan), upcoming PM visit (Australia), upcoming trade delegation amidst CPSP discussions (South Korea), FDI easing, growing military spending (India).

India thaw: Given warming relations and the changing defence landscape what are you doing to explore market opportunity?

Strategic (2026+)

155mm co-production: Define viable Canadian role with Taiwanese and U.S. partners that clears export-control and security requirements.

Variable-geometry opportunities: Target flexible, coalition-aligned projects where Canada is welcome and useful—information security with Japan, EW and mission systems in Korea, radar or hypersonics research lines with Australia.

CANADA: The Carney Doctrine and a 2026 trade blitz

Between two powers: PM Carney wrapped up China trip while walking careful line. Outcomes include lower tariffs on Canadian canola and a quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles that can be sold in Canada. Former U.S. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response.

Emergence of the Carney Doctrine: Carney’s Davos address drew wide attention. Just before his remarks, Singapore’s Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing delivered speech at Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa with similar themes, suggesting converging vocabulary.

Trade blitz: 2026 push across Indo-Pacific set to include Japan, Australia, South Korea, and others.

Watch: Carney’s Davos speech points toward Singapore-style foreign policy: Invest in hard capabilities and issue-specific alliances rather than relying on fading protection of global institutions.

SINGAPORE: The original Carney Doctrine practitioners?

Shangri-La Dialogue: Sherpa dialogue wrapped up. See Canada note for Minister Chan Chun Sing’s speech emphasizing small states should build capabilities to stay relevant. United States hosted FVEYS meeting.

P-8A sale approved by US State Dept: Singapore officially approved to acquire four Poseidon aircraft, joining customers that include Canada, United States, New Zealand, and Australia.

Singapore Airshow: Big ramp up ahead of Singapore Airshow. Preliminary list of Canadian firms represented. See you there!

Watch: Major announcements and partnerships at Singapore Airshow. Anything we can learn from the Singaporeans who know how to perform the balancing act?

TAIWAN: drone incursions, fishing boat militia blockades and 155mm coproduction

Pratas incursion and fishing militia blockade: Confirmed violation of Taiwanese airspace. Beyond drone incursions, large gray zone escalation surfaced. 200 mile long floating barrier of more than 1,400 Chinese maritime militia fishing ships confirmed in East China Sea. Appears to be rehearsal for clog-and-contain blockade strategy.

Special budget meets opposition: Opposition demanded greater transparency; government released list of weapons systems to be acquired from United States for US$39.6B. Key items include 82 HIMARS units and 2,000 counter-drone systems.

Reinforcements against decapitation tactics: military police unit responsible for protecting government leaders, guarding strategic facilities etc equipped with additional anti-aircraft missiles.

155mm artillery shell production: Taiwan’s Armaments Bureau confirmed plan to jointly produce 155mm shells with United States on Taiwanese soil. Moves Taiwan from consumer to production node.

Watch: Indicators like fishing boat militia blockade and incursions are probably better signals of overall regional stability.

INDIA: opening the door to foreign investment, PM visit, critical minerals

Big deals context: :Large trade deal with EU and potential record military purchase of 114 fighters from France.

Foreign investment in defence: India planning to ease rules to boost foreign investment in domestic defence firms, lifting FDI cap to 74%.

Bilateral relations and collaboration: Amid some additional clarity in bilateral relations and growing interest in collaborating, is now the time to move? This Indian think tank thinks so, and is advocating for cooperation with Canada’s leading companies including CAE, Blackberry, Pratt & Whitney and more.

Carney in India: Prime Minister planning to travel in February.

Free trade agreement: Ongoing negotiation of Canada–India agreement, with announceables expected if the PM travels.

Critical minerals and rare earths: Minister Hodgson will travel to India to build critical mineral partnerships amid skepticism. Likely laying the groundwork for PM’s upcoming visit.

Watch: Any news in advance of PM Carney trip? Who will first movers from Canadian industry given thawing relations?

JAPAN: Security of information, snap election, and subsea cable working groups

Security of Information Agreement: Officially operationalized through exchange of diplomatic notes. Will ease flow of information and classified materials paving the way for industrial cooperation.

Potential snap election: Unlikely substantive engagement in country until political dust settles.

Subsea cable working group: The Montreal Institute for Global Security is sending a Canadian delegation to Japan as part of the Canada-Japan Subsea Cable Project.

Watch: What is the status of the technology transfer agreement? Will there be supplementary engagement in Japan during other trade delegations in region given likely election?

SOUTH KOREA: Next generation EW aircraft, trade delegation, and Hanwha push

Next generation EW aircraft: Bombardier’s Global 6500 will be basis, but what other opportunities are there? Training? EW? Sustainment?

Trade delegation: Team Canada and an upcoming trade mission to Republic of Korea.

Hanwha push: Appoints Glen Copeland, announces Newfoundland LNG, and advanced manufacturing in Quebec. TKMS on their own tear, announcing partnership with Cohere. TKMS answers with its own industrial cooperation push. Another delegation on the way!

Watch: Other industrial partnerships in advance of CPSP announcements on margins of trade mission. When is the Next Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting for SDCP (Security and Defence Co-operation Partnership)? How deep will the CPSP competitors commitments go?

AUSTRALIA: PM visit in March, JORN deliverables & Hypersonics?

PM visit: PM Carney plans to visit Australia in March following violent agreement from PM Albanese on Davos speech.

Watch: Not much has been heard publicly on deliverables or activities on JORN and funding announced in 2024 on the hypersonic defence research commitment. Will there be announceables during the PM’s visit in March? What other areas of cooperation? Will Canada take this as opportunity to accelerate its work on AUKUS Pillar II?

OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

Spending and fleet growth: Region-wide upgrades and expansion highlighted ahead of Singapore Airshow.

United States: US overhauls defence innovation.

Indonesia: Ongoing debate on force size and modernization, with attention on fleet growth trends.

New Zealand: Five Eyes digital leadership summit activity moving from planning to action (6 Jan).

Philippines: Canada conducted military cyber security operations course for Armed Forces of the Philippines. First Rajah Sulayman class OPV arrived, highlighting TRAPS powered active sonar systems. Ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries—good example of benefits of being in supply chain. Code of Conduct discussions in South China Sea remain in focus.

UPCOMING EVENTS

Space Summit 2026 | February 2-3 | Singapore

Singapore Airshow 2026 | February 3-6 | Singapore

Canada-in-Asia Conference 2026 | February 10-11 | Singapore

Subsea Security & Defence 2026 | February 10-13 | Singapore

DSA and NATSEC Asia | 20-23 April | Kuala Lumpur

Shangri-La Dialogue | May 29 – 31 | Singapore

Accelerated Procurement, Grants & Diversification Opportunity Tracker

Update Forthcoming in Next Edition…

Did we miss something? If so, let us know.

We’re pleased to feature Josh Wineera in this special edition. Josh is a former senior New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) Officer and is the Head of Global Partnerships at the Taranaki Alliance. He’s also building a Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) education and integration pathway with New Zealand’s leading aviation teaching institute.

For those unfamiliar, MUM-T carries outsized sovereignty, operational, and economic implications. It changes the calculus of warfare by enabling forces to generate scale and effect that would otherwise be unaffordable. In other words a path to quantity with a quality all its own.

Josh’s core point is simple and should be compelling to both policy makers and industry in Canada: win the human-machine interface, training, and integration battle before the hardware arrives.

In light of Prime Minister Carney’s Davos message on “variable geometry” and working with like-minded partners, this feels timely. As the PM put it: if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu. Here’s Josh’s article:

Win Before the Flight: The Smart Advantage Behind Manned- Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) in the Indo-Pacific

Introduction
Most discussions about human-machine teaming start with platforms: crewed aircraft, uncrewed systems, autonomy levels, sensors, data links, and who’s buying what.

That’s understandable. Platforms are visible, budgeted, and politically legible.

But the real bottleneck for Indo-Pacific MUM-T won’t be hardware. It will be the human pipeline: the ability to grow operators, engineers, instructors, acquisition staff, and industry teams who share a common “teaming grammar”, and can evolve tactics, training, and integration at the speed of software, not procurement cycles.

The premise is simple: MUM-T is an education and integration pathway before it’s a platform choice. The advantage goes to the countries that build the learning system first, because they’ll integrate safer, learn faster, and adapt sooner. That’s smart advantage in practice.

Fighter debates run on two tracks at once

If you want a case study in how platform conversations become stand-ins for deeper issues, look at the recurring “which fighter” debates that swirl around allied air forces.

Canada’s debates, F-35 or alternatives, are often framed as performance, cost, risk, and interoperability. But underneath, the argument usually runs on two tracks at once:

• the visible binary of “which aircraft is better,” and

• the deeper questions of industrial pathways, upgrade control, and how fast a force can evolve capability over time, including within tightly integrated alliance ecosystems.

At its core, this isn’t a platform argument or a critique of US systems. It’s a relevance argument: how smaller air forces stay credible, interoperable, and load-sharing in allied ecosystems by building the people-and-integration advantage first.

Zooming out, MUM-T amplifies every one of these themes. Once autonomy and teaming enter the loop, capability evolution becomes less about airframes and more about:

• human factors and trust calibration

• workload and decision rights

• training and synthetic environments

• interface design

• iterative experimentation with operators and engineers in the same room

That’s not primarily a procurement problem, it’s also a learning system problem.

A small-country reminder: Project Kahu

New Zealand offers a useful historical analogy for “integration literacy as leverage.”

In the mid-1980s, the RNZAF ran Project Kahu, a major upgrade program for its A-4K Skyhawks, modernising avionics and weapons delivery, while building deep integration and sustainment habits across the force and local industry.

The details matter less than the principle: Kahu wasn’t about buying scale, it was about upgrading the system (and the people) so a legacy platform could behave like something far more modern.

There’s an Asia relevance here too. Through the FPDA exercise circuit, RNZAF Skyhawks repeatedly operated in the Singapore–Malaysia training geography right up to the end of the Air Combat Force era. By the late 1990s and early 2000s, with RSAF F-16s and RMAF F/A-18D Hornets in service, the upgraded A-4K could still deploy into that environment and fly high-end, integrated training serials alongside modern fast-jets. Which is exactly the point: integration and training let smaller fleets remain relevant alongside more modern platforms.

MUM-T is the modern version of this logic. The decisive advantage isn’t simply “owning autonomy.” It’s building the workforce that can safely integrate autonomy into operations and keep evolving as threats and software change.

The Singapore factor

Singapore matters here because it’s a practical learning accelerator.

Singapore’s universities and applied ecosystem invest heavily in the disciplines that sit right underneath MUM-T: autonomous systems, robotics, and human–machine interaction, especially “human-in-the-loop” approaches where supervision, trust, and decision rights are designed rather than assumed.

And that’s the core point: MUM-T’s hard problems aren’t solved by adding more autonomy. They’re solved by designing human-centred teaming, then training it, testing it, and refining it.

The opportunity is not “buying tech.” It’s using Singapore’s applied ecosystem to accelerate learning then translating those lessons into doctrine, training pipelines, and industry participation back home.

A tri-node model: Canada + Singapore + New Zealand

Here’s a simple way to view a Canada + Singapore + New Zealand tri-node.

Canada brings scale, procurement gravity, industry depth, and the ability to convene and sustain long-run capability.

Singapore brings applied iteration, research depth in human-machine interaction, and an Indo-Pacific vantage point where operational realities are close.

A New Zealand node can bring a small-force integration perspective, with early pathway work emerging to treat MUM-T as an education and integration discipline, and to operationalise that learning into repeatable training and integration habits.

This doesn’t need to be a “programme.” It can be a collaboration pattern, a repeatable way to build MUM-T literacy, interoperability, and workforce depth without waiting for the next major platform decision to do all the work. But the tri-node is just a starter loop, extensible to other Indo-Pacific partners (Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand for example) as shared learning matures.

The role of primes and integrators

This kind of collaboration doesn’t need a prime to lead it, but it benefits from primes and integrators who treat integration and training as first-class capability - the kind of focus often associated with players like Saab and Thales: mission systems thinking, human factors, synthetic integration, and the practical art of evolving capability over time. In other words: helping nations get better at teaming, regardless of which aircraft they operate.

MUM-T beyond the military

It’s also worth stating plainly, the application of human–machine teaming outside military use is significant.

The same teaming literacy - safety cases, trust calibration, synthetic-first training transfers cleanly between defence and civil operations.

In Canada, many high-value use cases sit in spaces that are operationally real and economically meaningful: Arctic and maritime operations, wildfire and disaster response, remote infrastructure inspection, offshore energy, and domain awareness. Across all of them, the hard part is similar: building safe, trusted, well-trained human–machine teams in dynamic environments.

What collaboration could look like (low friction, high value)

• Shared lessons learned

• Early operator-engineer-human factors contact

• Synthetic-first exploration with interoperability in mind

In a space moving this fast, the advantage goes to those who begin early. So who’s ready to suit up?

About the author:

Josh Wineera works at the intersection of defence capability development, training pathways and industry participation across the Indo-Pacific. He has previously written on NZ-Canadian defence industry collaboration in DefSec magazine He is a former Army forward air controller. He is Head of Global Partnerships with the Taranaki Alliance and is developing a MUM-T education and integration pathway with New Zealand’s leading aviation teaching institute. You can find him on Linkedin here.

$753M Bombardier deal and Buy Canadian policy starts implementation; PM Carney visits Beijing. Taiwan unveils $40B defense supplement as PRC rehearses total blockade. Trump signals $1.5T defense budget after ordering Venezuela intervention and demanding Greenland. Japan approves record $58B budget; Emerging links between $41B submarine deal to a Hyundai (or European) plant in Canada. AUKUS Pillar II narrows focus to four priority areas. BlackBerry provides secure comms for ASEAN. Canada should join GCAP.

Summary of Key Action Items For Policy Makers and Industry Executives

Immediate (Next 30 Days)

Canada: Await Defence Industrial Policy release; conduct gap analysis on policy when released, submit for DND Collaborative Networks funding opportunity by 19 Jan.

Taiwan: Register for Canada-Taiwan R&D Funding Opportunity by February 19.

US: Review DIU opportunity for prototyping Geomagnetic Airborne Unmanned Survey System (GAUSS)

Singapore: Consider submitting for Cap Vista Accelerator Program for early detection of Lithium-ion battery anomalies and containment of thermal runaway (offers exposure to both European and SE Asian markets).

South Korea: Track latest Rep. of Korea delegation outcomes in Ottawa.

India: Submit input to India Trade Agreement consultation by January 27

Medium-Term (2026)

Japan: Map capabilities against SHIELD procurement roadmap and watch for new ISA/Tech Transfer framework

US: Monitor USMCA review (scheduled for July 2026) as litmus test for Canada-U.S. defense-industrial relationship and audit exposure to U.S. Buy American push.

Strategic (2026+)

GCAP: Position for Canadian sub-system expertise entry using Japan Tech Transfer Agreement and engage w other GCAP partners.

Nuclear Propulsion: Canadian nuclear engineering firms (explore and deepen) South Korea partnership opportunities

Southeast Asia: ID opportunities for In-Service Support capabilities (including ISS training and simulation) for regional fighter modernization programs.

AUKUS Pillar II: No expanded membership until priorities set; focus on specific solutions not broad innovation.

CANADA: Defense Dollars, Buy Canadian, and Beijing

$753M Bombardier Contract: Government of Canada awarded Bombardier the Global 6500 multi-role aircraft contract, signaling commitment to domestic aerospace capabilities.

Buy Canadian Takes Effect amid Defence Industrial Policy wait: Buy Canadian policy officially launched December 16. The defense community awaits details of the Defence Industrial Policy and whether it will have sufficient focus.

Carney’s China Visit: PM Carney attended a Chinese reception December 19 and visits China this week, attempting to balance economic necessity with geopolitical tensions.

Watch: How Buy Canadian affects procurement officer behavior at the micro-level. Carney’s specific language in Beijing on balancing trade diversification with PRC tensions.

TAIWAN: $40B Defense Supplement and Blockade Rehearsals

Taiwan Dome Initiative: President Lai Ching-te announced $40B supplemental defense budget (2026-33) for island-wide air and missile defense. U.S. FY2026 NDAA (signed Dec 18) codifies US-Taiwan drone co-production, shifting from buyer-seller to industrial partnership.

Justice Mission 2025: PRC sanctions western defence firms and related individuals over the holidays and launched blockade exercise December 29-30, deploying 14 PLA Navy and 14 Coast Guard vessels to rehearse quarantine of Taiwan’s major ports at a very consequential time - during Western holiday periods.

Non-Red Supply Chains: Taiwan targets 50,000 non-Chinese drones goal while PRC debuts Tianma-1000 cargo drone. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense plans to procure 48,750 military drones by 2027, part of a broader 100,000+ unit procurement program excluding PRC origin components. Separately, Taiwan aims for 180,000 drones annual production capacity by 2030 and an unnamed Taiwanese manufacturer is potentially seeking partnerships in Canada.

Watch: What shape will industrial cooperation take? Where will production sites be located? How will the plan ensure to include system integration and AI-driven C2 for drone swarms. Will it be open to non-US and non-Taiwanese firms?

Action: Canada-Taiwan 2025-2026 Collaborative Industrial R&D Call offers up to $500K reimbursement for joint projects in Advanced Manufacturing, Clean Tech, Digital Tech, or Quantum. Canadian registration deadline: February 19, 2026. (https://nrc.canada.ca/en/irap/about/international/?action=view&id=264)

UNITED STATES: $1.5T Budget, Venezuela, and SHIELD

Defense Budget Increase: President Trump signals intent to raise U.S. defense budget to $1.5T by 2027.

Venezuela Operation: U.S. military operation January 2 to remove Maduro regime strikes at PRC interests in the western hemisphere. China has invested significant funds in Venezuela. Immediately following, President Trump focused on Greenland raising eyebrows everywhere.

SHIELD Contract: Missile Defense Agency awarded SHIELD (Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense) contract to MDA Space, positioning the Canadian-headquartered firm in U.S. layered defense architecture.

DJI Reprieve: Department of Commerce temporarily lifted planned DJI crackdown ahead of Xi-Trump summit in April. FCC ban remains in place; Commerce withdrawal serves as bargaining chip.

Missile Pac Exercises: Joint interoperability drills with Australia and Canada and others in Hawaii. Included South Korea, Japan, the Philippines showing some more traditional activities and collaboration on this side of the planet.

Watch: PRC retaliation or pressure ahead of April summit. U.S. pressure on Denmark regarding Greenland; implications for Canadian Arctic sovereignty and NORAD modernization demands given administration was emboldened by recent ops.

JAPAN: Record Budget and the Canada-Japan Cooperation No One is Talking About

FY2026 Defense Budget: Takaichi Cabinet approved record 9.04 trillion yen ($58B), the 12th consecutive increase. Japan’s SHIELD program allocates $640M for autonomous maritime systems and UAVs.

Canada-Japan Defense Cooperation: July 2025 Information Security Agreement followed by National Security Advisors meeting. Canadian Ambassador to Japan cited upcoming Defense Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement in New Year’s message.

GCAP Acceleration: Global Combat Air Programme targets 2035 operational date, and the Italians are reportedly interested in bringing Canada and others in to the program..

China Export Ban: Beijing banned dual-use exports to Japan, affecting rare earth magnets and electronics. While ostensibly focused on military applications, there is likely to be an impact on vehicles and electronics.

Watch: Toyota and Advantest supply chain impacts. Whether Ottawa leverages Tech Transfer Agreement for GCAP/AUKUS Pillar II entry. Agreement terms on modification Freedom of Action.

Action: Canadian firms with IP in AI, UAV C2, or Maritime Domain Awareness should map capabilities against SHIELD procurement roadmap. Barrier to entry dropping with ISA and Tech Transfer Agreement.

SOUTH KOREA: Nuclear Submarines and the Automotive Grand Bargain

Nuclear Submarine Program: Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back confirmed 2026 roadmap for domestic nuclear-powered submarine construction following U.S. summits and Trump’s support for collective capabilities.

$41B Submarine Deal: Canadian Patrol Submarine Project evolving into industrial package deal. Team Korea delegation including Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik and Hyundai executives visiting Ottawa in January. Reports indicate PM Carney linked submarine contract (Korea’s Hanwha/HD Hyundai vs. Germany’s TKMS) to 100% industrial offset, specifically requesting Hyundai automotive plant in Canada.

Canada-Korea Defense Cooperation: Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada held a meeting December 16 in Vancouver on cooperation pathways.

Watch: Nuclear propulsion as third track in 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue given South Korea’s domestic nuclear-powered sub program and Canada’s AtkinsRéalis/Westinghouse ecosystem. Next Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting for SDCP (Security and Defence Co-operation Partnership) intelligence sharing and joint R&D language. Whether Hyundai commits to Canadian manufacturing facility.

Action: Canadian EV supply chain and nuclear engineering firms should track Korean delegation meetings in Ottawa. Package deal creates cross-sector entry points. TKMS needs German/European industrial commitments (Volkswagen/PowerCo, Siemens) to match Korean automotive and energy offsets. They appear to be on track with the recent release of their Team Website.

AUSTRALIA: Sovereign Capabilities and AUKUS Focus

AUKUS Pillar II Narrowing: Reports indicate U.S. and UK looking to narrow Pillar II from 8 areas to focused priorities, likely Undersea Capabilities, Quantum, AI, and Hypersonics. Other country participation predicated on more narrow, specific focus that’s outcome driven and will serve existing members of AUKUS.

Littoral and Autonomous Maneuvers: Australia greenlighting construction of sovereign Medium Landing Craft and boosting MQ-28A Ghost Bat funding, solidifying transition to island-hopping capabilities and AI-driven unmanned combat aircraft.

Watch: AUKUS entry now competitive race to solve specific bottlenecks in four priority areas. Technologies in general cyber or information sharing face tightened integration path.

Action: Align with Big Four priorities and proactively pitch things. Pitch specific solutions to Undersea, Quantum, AI, or Hypersonics challenges rather than broad emerging tech capabilities.

OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

Southeast Asia Fighter Modernization: Philippines to Indonesia moving toward 4.5 and 5th-gen platforms. Opportunity in In-Service Support, pilot training, and sensor integration where Canadian industrial base is globally competitive.

Singapore: RSN conducted maritime drills in ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise (Dec 9-13) while simultaneously running urban counter-terrorism exercise with PLA demonstrating impressive flexibility.

New Zealand: Wellington establishing agreements with Japan to deepen cooperation including provisions to share supplies, and an information sharing agreement like Canada’s.

India: Canada opened public consultations on India Trade Agreement (through Jan 27, 2026). APF Canada Track 1.5 Dialogue confirms shared focus on maritime security and counter-influence operations. Canadian defense and dual-use firms should engage on maritime domain awareness and space-based ISR.

Malaysia: National Defence Industry Policy launching early 2026, targeting self-reliance. Reports emerged in December of Malaysia using BlackBerry SecuSUITE for secure communications during October ASEAN summit. Precedent provides proof of concept for Canadian cybersecurity and encryption firms in ASEAN government contracts. Malaysia also announces it will release a defence industrial policy in 2026.

Thailand: Canada-Thailand FTA consultations underway. Focus on advanced manufacturing and digital infrastructure suggests opening for defense-adjacent technologies. Thailand’s ISR and aerospace component procurement accelerating as they diversify from Chinese-only systems.

UPCOMING EVENTS

Space Summit 2026 | February 2-3 | Singapore

Singapore Airshow 2026 | February 3-6 | Singapore

Canada-in-Asia Conference 2026 | February 10-11 | Singapore

Subsea Security & Defence 2026 | February 10-13 | Singapore

Grants, Accelerators & Procurement Opportunity Tracker

In talking with a few clients and friends, I’ve decided to start a tracker for procurements, grants and funding opportunities and other initiatives that are 1. Export relevant 2. Linked to dual-use tech or deeptech/innovation. Here’s a start:

If you have items you think should be covered, send them my way. For the full tracker, please get in touch with us.

Did we miss something? If so, let us know.

What did we see?

There’s lots on the boiler in Canada these past few weeks, including Canada joining Europe’s SAFE initiative. There was also confirmation that Minister Joly was in the Republic of Korea (see more under S. Korea below) touring the KSS-III submarine.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Army launched the Minerva initiative designed to “figure out how best to equip our troops with small, uncrewed systems, like drones on land, air, and water, that can scout ahead, deliver supplies, or strike targets. These tools will reduce risk to soldiers and give them better situational awareness and options on the modern battlefield.”

Canada also moved ahead with a $44.7M contract award to MDA Space for Radarsat+ for the procurement of long lead items.

CAE did a recent interview with Asian Military Review highlighting interest in the region, particularly Japan and Singapore.

Finally, Canada announced the RDII (Regional Defence Investment Initiative), a $357.7M initiative delivered by Canada’s regional development agencies, designed to help companies engage in the defence marketplace.

What to watch:

● Canada’s joining of SAFE offers some interesting opportunities, but how exactly will it be used? Watch for implementation plan announcements.

● Right now it’s about planning, but when will Minerva translate into programs and procurement dollars?

What to do:

● Apply for RDII funding. With $357.7M available through regional development agencies, identify which agency covers your region and submit applications to fund defense capability development, certifications, or market entry activities.

● Engage with Minerva consultations. Participate in any Army engagement sessions on the initiative. If you have UAS/drone capabilities (land, air, or water), reach out to the Canadian Army modernization team to demonstrate your solutions during this planning phase.

United States – A (New?) Take On National Security Policy

What did we see?

Over the weekend, the US quietly released the National Security Strategy of the United States of America. For a full analysis check out War on the Rocks , but this should give you a flavour of the general view of some expert commentators: “it narrows American purpose to “core national interests” and explicitly disavows the post-Cold War liberal order that the United States has built and led.” And “economic nationalism and reindustrialization sit at the center of security strategy, not at the periphery”

What to watch for:

• Pressures: Partner countries and those active in the Indo-Pacific will be pressured to make more defence and security contributions where there are strategic and economic imperatives, where will pressure be applied first?

• Actions: Specific call to action for Europe, Japan, RoK, Australia, Canada and Mexico to adopt trade policies to rebalance trade with China, and mention of an expectation of ‘sole-sourcing’ to US companies, how does this evolve?

• Deeptech: How do specific call outs in the policy in defence technology areas like undersea, space, nuclear, AI, quantum, autonomous systems and energy get translated into action?

What to do

• What can Canada do that will do ‘double duty’ of satisfying some of the demands made by the Americans, while also meeting our own objectives and interests?

• Start analyzing the potential commercial implications for your firm and market segment

• Identify where there are gaps and where the US is going to be transactional and western hemispheric focused. Do these areas present opportunities to strike new partnerships? Help friends and allies with diversification? What commercial opportunities do they present?

Australia – Acquisition Org Reshuffle

What did we see?

Australia has created a “Defence Delivery Agency”, but unlike in Canada where the new Defence Investment Agency technically falls under Public Services and Procurement Canada, the Australian entity will report directly to the Defence Minister.

In other news, AtkinsRealis closed a deal in the UK to “support submarine reactor projects with expertise in nuclear propulsion, safety, systems engineering, and program delivery. It will also provide consulting, environmental services, asset management, cyber resilience, digital solutions, and reactor design.”

Why is this under Australia? Well, AtkinsRealis also closed an acquisition of ADG in Australia, and based on this 2023 publication and here , has had their eye on AUKUS for awhile.

What to watch:

● How will the Defence Delivery Agency affect existing programs? What’s the implementation plan?

● Despite not formally being in AUKUS, it appears a Canadian multinational will form a core part of engineering and technical capability for delivery. Does AtkinsRealis’ recent moves offer Canada additional opportunities to engage? Given workforce and labour constraints, what other opportunities are there?

What to do:

● Monitor existing program transitions. If you’re currently engaged in Australian Defence programs, proactively reach out to program managers to understand how the new agency will affect contract management, delivery timelines, and accountability structures.

● Explore AtkinsRealis as an AUKUS bridge. AtkinsRealis (Canadian HQ) is now positioned across UK nuclear submarine work and Australian delivery through ADG. Canadian companies with complementary capabilities should explore partnerships that could give them access to AUKUS work through this pathway. Given tremendous workforce shortages, the Australians will need the help.

Japan – New Alliances with Australia & Exploring Security Assistance Program

What did we see?

Japan and Australia have launched a “Framework for Strategic Defence Coordination” which includes specific reference to industrial cooperation in shipbuilding and sustainment.

This comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions with the PRC, with Chinese fighter jets directing radar at Japanese aircraft.

There’s also discussion of further export control reforms enabling the export of lethal equipment in 2026.

Our friends at Nexus Pacific covered the Official Security Assistance Program in a recent post—worth checking out if you are in maritime domain awareness, space surveillance, counter-UAS, and satcom, and looking for an entry path into the APAC market.

What to watch:

● Does the recent agreement offer a framework for engagement that Canada could either leverage or modify for its own agreements? What are the defence industrial angles covered in the framework?

What to do:

● Target Official Security Assistance markets. If you have capabilities in maritime domain awareness, space surveillance, counter-UAS, or satcom, study Japan’s Official Security Assistance Program as a pathway to multiple Indo-Pacific markets (Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam) where Japan is providing equipment and training.

● Monitor export control changes closely. Japan’s 2026 easing of lethal equipment exports will fundamentally change what can be co-developed and sold. Companies should prepare now for expanded collaboration possibilities once restrictions lift.

South Korea – Other Opportunities?

What did we see?

Minister Joly toured the KSS-III submarine during her visit to South Korea.

The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada is hosting a discussion in Vancouver. Outputs should be interesting if shared. See background here on Canada-Republic of Korea Track 1.5 defence and security cooperation. Given recent developments with AtkinsRealis supporting UK Submarines and nuclear propulsion and Seoul’s push for nuclear powered conventionally armed subs, perhaps there’s a meaningful play here for Canada in the region.

Worth noting: Canada’s casualty identification program is thanking Canadians for help locating soldiers missing from the Korean War a reminder that Canada-ROK defense ties have deep roots, and that modern cooperation builds on shared sacrifice and shared values.

South Korea is also making inroads in Singapore with the announcement of a new Strategic Partnership with Singapore

What to watch:

● Track 1.5 dialogue outputs. The Vancouver event should produce concrete recommendations on defense industrial cooperation pathways. Watch for announcements following this engagement.

● How will S. Korea’s nuclear sub ambitions unfold? Are there gaps in capability that an engineering giant like AtkinsRealis could help fill? Are there broader linkages that can be made?

What to do:

● Prepare for offset/value prop and ITB negotiations. If you’re a Canadian company that could absorb technology transfer, participate in co-production, or provide sustainment services, develop clear proposals for how you’d integrate into a Korean (or European) submarine program. The winning bidder will need credible Canadian industrial partners.

New Zealand – Joint Operations

NZDF deployed HMNZS Aotearoa and P-8A Poseidon aircraft to enforce North Korea sanctions, demonstrating sustained commitment to regional security operations and sanctions enforcement partnerships, working alongside Canada’s HMCS Max Bernays.

Philippines – Capability Delivery

The Philippines accepted delivery of BRP Diego Silang, a demonstration of the continuing depth and breadth of the South Korean defence industry capabilities.

Indonesia – Deepening Cooperation with Canada

Indonesian Ambassador to Canada Muhsin Syihab visited the Peace Support Training Center in Kingston to advance conversations to implement the MOUs signed in August and September.


Upcoming Events

● Space Summit 2026 | February 2-3, 2026 | Singapore

● Singapore Airshow 2026 | February 3-6, 2026 | Singapore

● Canada-in-Asia Conference (CIAC) 2026 | February 10–11, 2026 | Singapore.

● Subsea Security & Defence 2026 | February 10-13, 2026 | Singapore

Grants, Accelerators & Procurement Opportunity Tracker

In talking with a few clients and friends, I’ve decided to start a tracker for procurements, grants and funding opportunities and other initiatives that are 1. Export relevant 2. Linked to dual-use tech or deeptech/innovation. Here’s a start:

If you have items you think should be covered, send them my way.

Future editions: Singapore, Thailand, India, Taiwan, and others.

Did we miss something? If so, let us know. Canada X Indo-Pacific is taking a break over the holidays. We’ll be back in January.

What Happened:

G7 Ministers met in Niagara Falls on Nov 12^th releasing a statement focused on regional security and prosperity across the Indo-Pacific focusing specifically on attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East China Sea and South China Sea.

Canada also hosted the Halifax International Security Forum (21-23 Nov), which is truly a world- class event. See here for an interview with Peter MacKay who was instrumental in launching the Forum.

India, Australia and, Canada signed a trilateral agreement called the “Australia – Canada – India Technology and Innovation Partnership,” reported by Noah at True North Strategic Review. While it doesn’t specifically mention defence it does talk about resilient supply chains and critical minerals. Officials agree to convene in first quarter of 2026 for further talks.

The HMCS Ville de Quebec returned from a long deployment Operation Horizon on 10 November. Their deployment included Exercise Talisman Sabre where HMCS Ville De Quebec rearmed while forward deployed.

Kraken Robotics (PNG) appointed BlueZone Group as its authorized reseller for SAS/KATFISH in Australia and New Zealand indicating that they’re actively pursuing some promising opportunities down under. DraganFly (DPRO), HQ’d in Saskatoon announced a ‘strategically significant order’ for its Commander 3XL systems via an undisclosed prime contractor to an undisclosed APAC nation. “The configuration selected includes an AES 256 secure communication link, a rugged ground control station and flexible payload architecture supporting intelligence, real-time surveillance, and logistical applications.”

What to watch:

• Will the trilateral agreement between Canada, Australia and India have a defence component?

• Will Kraken/BlueZone and any similar Canadian Australian pairings result in RAN/RCN trials or AUKUS adjacent projects?

• As more countries look for reliable partners and capabilities for drone/UAS hardware that don’t have risky supply chains (DJI). Will Draganfly and others continue to take market share? And where was the sale? I’d bet Taiwan or Australia in that order.

What to do:

• If you’re in undersea, ISR, comms, map where your solutions can be positioned particularly as a subsystem or payload provider.

• If you’re a firm with capabilities for payloads for UAS you should be a fast follower into the region.

Australia – Espionage, AUKUS, JP9102

Australia is reminding the ADF of the risks of espionage and malign actors following the release of a report that estimated that espionage cost Australia 12.5B in 2024-24.

Against this backdrop, the Australians are working hard to keep up momentum on AUKUS with PM Albanese speaking at length at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia referencing the presence of the USS Vermont. On the other side of the world, the Australians participated in a recent update to the IAEA on Australia’s naval nuclear propulsion program. Still no public progress on the status of Pillar 2 however.

What to Watch:

• We’re coming up on the one year anniversary since Australia cancelled it’s JP9102. Canada’s ESCP-P has some similarities to the Australia JP9102 in that it was envisioned as a consolidated highly exquisite solution, that is unfortunately vulnerable to evolving space threats. We haven’t heard much on ESCP-P lately, but DND was targeting Definition in 2025. Will Canada make a similar call and can the acquisition and pursue a distributed solution?

• Whether Australia’s renewed focus on espionage translates into tighter security vetting, data-handling and facilities requirements for foreign primes and SMEs, and if foreign contractors start encountering more red tape

What to Do:

• If you’re a potential supplier for ESCP-P in Canada I’d start getting ready to pivot and start packaging your offer explicitly around resilience: disaggregated constellations, rapid reconstitution, cyber-hardening, and more graceful degradation rather than destruction under jamming ASAT scenarios.

• If you’re engaged in the Australian market, shore up your security practices and policies!
  

Japan – Multi and Bi-lateral Exercises

Canada completed a multilateral exercise (Japan, Australia, Canada, New Zealand) and bilateral exercise “Kaedex 25” to realize a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” in the East China Sea.

What to Watch:

• Japan is maintaining an impressive cadence of excercises with allies, see the deepening defence cooperation section here . Will Canada lean in to the opportunity?

What To Do:

• If you’re a company, contemplate how your existing solutions can contribute to a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” whether that’s domain awareness, unmanned systems, logistics and resupply etc.

Republic of Korea – MOU and Another Trip to Korea for Canadian Ministers?

What Happened:

In industry news, Canada’s Canadian Commercial Corporation (Canada’s G2G sales entity) and the Republic of Korea’s DAPA signed an LOI to pursue collaboration on space and maritime platforms. There are also reports that there will be another Ministerial trip to the Indo-Pacific.

What to Watch:

• What’s the next step in the CCC LOI? Will it result in direct sales to RoK, or offer some kind of supply chain access? If not the latter, how do we think about getting in to RoK supply chains for defence?

• Are there going to be any additional commitments, MOUs or LOIs between Canada and the RoK that come out of the Ministerial visit?

What To Do:

• While probably designed to address the needs of a large prime (If I had to guess I’d pick MDA based on the flavour of the MOU) if you’re a Canadian firm in LEO/Space or Maritime Domain Awareness you should be talking to CCC to see if you can piggyback or otherwise use their recent MOU/LOI

New Zealand – FVEYS Navy Talks

What Happened:

New Zealand hosted the navies of the FVEYS under the FVEYS Navy Talks Charter singed in 2017. Not many specifics, but topics included science and tech, maritime warfare and future fleet concepts.

What to Watch:

• Will the FVEYS Navy talks result in any concrete deliverables like common future concepts in key areas like (uncrewed systemsm undersea warfare, logistics) shared S&T roadmaps, new excercises?

• Any public hints that these talks may be shaping or feeding in to AUKUS Pillar 2 discussions, and convergence in requirements like sensors, comms, UxV architectures)

What to Do:

• If you’re in government or uniform looking to foster industrial cooperation, use terms like interoperability, shared standards, and experimentation and focus on concepts that can be tested or scaled across all five navies.

• If you’re industry, map your offerings to FVEYS-relevant themes—maritime ISR, uncrewed systems, secure comms, data fusion—and be ready to brief them as enablers for “future fleet concepts” that could be trialled in multinational exercises or testbeds.

Singapore - New High Commissioner

Paul Thoppil presented credentials as Canada’s new High Commissioner on Nov 17.

Taiwan - Export controls tightening

Taipei launched a 60-day public review to add items like quantum computers and advanced semiconductor equipment to dual-use export control. Important for Canadian firms touching chips quantum hardware or tooling. Check out the 18 items.

India - Tragedy in Dubai

A Tejas crashed during a display on Nov 21, killing the pilot; HAL calls it an “isolated occurrence,” with an inquiry under way. Near-term optics could affect air-show marketing and export messaging, but the structural Tejas program and related supply chains (e.g., engines, avionics) are unlikely to shift absent safety findings.

Our condolences to all affected and the family of the pilot.

Indonesia

• Australia–Indonesia security treaty (substantively concluded): Announced Nov 12, to be formally signed in Jan 2026. Commits regular consultations and consideration of joint measures if either’s security is threatened.

• Policy Opacity: As Fauzan Malufti, a leading Indonesia Defence Analyst notes, Indonesia still lacks an updated, public defence white paper leaving acquisitions and initiatives hard to map against a published strategy. See his analysis here. Expect ambitious spending and headline deals, but with planning uncertainties for industry

Philippines

• ADMM/ADMM-Plus chairship: Manila formally took over the 2026 chair earlier this month positioning it to steer regional defence cooperation agendas (maritime security, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief), counter-terrorism and capacity building). Useful backdrop for Canadian engagement in the region.

Pushback on Canada–Philippines SOFVA troops pact: Beijing criticized the new Status of Visiting Forces Agreement that lets Canadian and Philippine forces train on each other’s soil framing it as “flexing muscles.” Expect continued PRC messaging pressure around joint activities. SOVFA was signed Nov 2.

Thailand

• Defence & Security 2025 (Nov 10–13, Bangkok) wrapped up. Outside the Canada Pavillion exhibitors included: JSI Telecom:AI-enabled digital intelligence/lawful access platform (4Sight) and Pratt & Whitney / P&WC and Newcon Optik.

Upcoming Events:

• Creating Pan-Domain Continental Defence, 27 November 2025, Ottawa, Canada, https://www.cgai.ca/2025_continental_defence

• Force Development Series – Sustaining Canada’s Future Submarine Fleet, 3 December 2025, Ottawa, Canada, https://cdainstitute.ca/force-development-series-sustaining-canadas-future-submarine-fleet/

• RSIS Webinar – Navigating Great-Power Competition: Malaysia’s Role in Semiconductor, Rare-Earth and Data-Centre Value Chains, 3 December 2025, Online (Singapore), https://rsis.edu.sg/event/rsis-webinar-on-navigating-great-power-competition-malaysias-role-in-semiconductor-rare-earth-and-data-centre-value-chains-on-3-december-2025/

• Forging the Future – Strengthening the Canada–Republic of Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Through Defence Co-operation, 8 December 2025, Vancouver, Canada, https://www.asiapacific.ca/events/december-8-forging-future-strengthening-canada-republic

• Space Summit 2026, 2 to 3 February 2026, Singapore, https://www.sginnovate.com/event/space-summit-2026

• Singapore Airshow 2026, 3 to 6 February 2026, Singapore, https://www.singaporeairshow.com

• Subsea Security & Defence 2026, 10 to 13 February 2026, Singapore, https://www.defenceiq.com/events-subsea-security-defence
  
  What did we miss? What countries or developments should we be tracking? Reply to this email or reach out directly.

This edition was slightly delayed due to travel back to Canada at the end of October…

Canada – Budget Release, Indo-Pacific Engagement & Trade Diversification

What Happened:
The Carney government tabled Budget 2025 on November 4, marking the largest defence investment in decades with $81.8B committed over five years.

PM Carney also travelled to the Indo-Pacific, including a stop in Singapore where he reiterated that Canada should target doubling our non-US exports over the next ten years. He also stopped at Hanwha Ocean’s shipyard where Hanwha’s savvy PR people made sure they got this photo:

For a full assessment of what the PM and the Government of Canada accomplished in the region, I recommend you check out this assessment by the Asia Pacific Foundation’s Vina Nadjibulla.

In other news, the Defence Investment Agency was also formally launched on 2 October and the CANEXPORT Program received a substantial injection of additional cash. For those of you contemplating diversifying your export markets, the program is worth a look as it covers 50% of your costs for new market entry.

Watch For:

• Hanwha has significant partnerships in Canada, including Babcock Canada, CAE, Gastops, L3Harris Canada, ModestTree and PCL Construction. In Korea, procurement and partnership models often emphasise scale and track record, which can favour larger incumbents. Canadians tend to design in SME participation. Watch whether Hanwha increases its efforts to establish partnerships with more smaller players in Canada.

• The Defence Investment Agency promises faster capability delivery, closer partnerships, and potential joint acquisitions with the UK, Australia, and France. Will this be extended to partners in the Indo-Pacific?

What you should do:

• If you’re a Canadian SME, you should be knocking directly on Hanwha’s door conveying the importance of SMEs in Canada for successful programs (not just from a economic but technical perspective too!)

• If you’re an exporter looking to take advantage of the CANEXPORT Program, start preparing now as proposals are likely to be evaluated on a first come first served basis and funding goes fast. We anticipate that applications will open in the new Year.
  

South Korea – Increased Spending, Formalised Industrial Cooperation

What happened?

In late October, Canada and South Korea formalized the Security and Cooperation Partnership, including a defence industrial cooperation section covering co-development, reduced trade barriers, and an industry forum. This is a smart move given that Seoul’s President recently announced ambitions to become the #4 global defence exporter. Despite this momentum, only a few Canadian firms appear to have exhibited independent of the Canada Pavilion at the ADEX defence trade show in Seoul which wrapped a few weeks ago, including Amphenol, Battlefield International, and OPTIMA. I hope the Canada Pavilion was stacked!

Watch For:

• First meeting of the Canada Korea defence industry forum, who will be invited, what are the topics?

• Any pilot co development efforts or export control streamlining.

• Korean OEMs supply chain expansions post ADEX and how they source Canadian content in sensors, software, MRO, composites.

What you should do:

• Prioritise partnerships with Hanwha, LIG Nex1, KAI, and HHI, with workshare narratives tied to Canadian strengths; if Canadian firms can get into the South Korean supply chain as their global efforts ramp up, the South Korean export strategy could offer a slingshot into more global markets for Canadian firms

Australia – AUKUS Away, Maritime Domain Awareness, and Regional Engagement

In late October, Trump gave his go ahead for AUKUS while expressing frustration around the slow implementation pace. While Pillar 1 goes ahead, it’s unclear if that’s also a go-ahead for Pillar 2 Advanced Capabilities (Quantum, Undersea Capabilities, Innovation, Information Sharing, for full list see here.) This is consequential for Canada, and others in the region including Japan and South Korea, who view Pillar 2 as a means to contribute to the pact without acquiring nuclear subs. However, not much has happened since the Trump Administration announced its review of the pact.

Australia participated in Exercise Suman Warrior 2025 with about 35 personnel under the Five Power Defence Arrangements, focusing on humanitarian aid and disaster relief, took delivery of its 13th P-8A and reactivated 12 Squadron at RAAF Edinburgh, signaling a sustained maritime surveillance focus. A recent incident in the South China Sea where a PLA aircraft released flares near an Australian surveillance aircraft raises issues of escalation caused by mistakes and unprofessional practices.

The Indo-Pacific International Maritime Exhibition in Sydney on 4 to 6 November, wrapped with Canadian representation from Kraken Robotics, MetOcean Telematics, Bronswerk Marine and others.

Watch For:

• AUKUS implementation pace and Pillar 2 reactivation. Will it speed up and will Pillar 2 be part of that?

• Australian capacity to implement on AUKUS commitments and whether workforce shortages arise.

• Post Indo-Pacific show memorandums of understanding and pilot trials announced by Australian state agencies and primes.

What You Should Do:

• If you’re a Canadian Policy maker, sharing any insights on the state of Pillar 2 would go a long way for industry. Are there other likeminded regional partners we could engage with to advance progress on Pillar 2?

• Given Australian capacity constraints, particularly workforce shortages, might there be areas to make common cause?

Japan - Accelerated Spending and More to Come?

What Happened:
Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi confirmed a push to hit 2 percent of GDP in FY2025, two years ahead of the 2027 target, with potential further increases. This comes amid continuing concerns about East China Sea activity, per the Japanese Defence Minister and the recent visit from President Trump.

What to Watch:

• FY2025 budget execution for munitions, air and missile defence, ISR, cyber, and industrial policy for co development.

What You Should Do:

• Frame proposals around interoperability with U.S. systems and export-control compliance, including pathways that support surface combatants and GCAP-adjacent capabilities

Singapore - The Most Densely Defended Country on the Planet

What Happened?
Besides the Canadian PM Visiting, Singapore launched its largest and most complex warship, the Multi Role Combat Vessel, a modular mothership for unmanned systems designed to ensure security of Sea Lines of Communication.

What To Watch:

• MRCV unmanned teaming trials and command and control integration. Procurement pathways for payloads, autonomy, and counter UxS.

What You Should Do:

• There may be opportunities to explore to offer specialized or differentiated mission packages for USV and UUV including sensors, autonomy stacks, and secure communications.

Philippines - Status of Forces Agreement

What Happened:
Canada deepened defence ties with the Philippines by signing an agreement permitting troop exchanges and training on each other’s soil. This is Canada’s first Status of Visiting Forces Agreement in the Region. This reflects a broader shift toward prioritizing Indo-Pacific engagement.

Canada isn’t the only one being courted by the South Koreans, with reports emering that South Korea also offered KSS III option for the Philippines. Given the price tag, and unless South Korea is willing to heavily subsidize the sale, it seems an unlikely outcome.

What to Watch:

• What are the practical implications for the SOVFA? Will there be greater Canadian training and capacity building activities? In what areas?

• What priorities will emerge for maritime patrol and coastal defence procurements?

What To Do:

• Position Canadian maritime and training solutions for joint activities, exercises, and sustainment. Focus on capacity building and force multipliers

Indonesia - Defence Policy Pulling In Several Directions

What Happened?

Jakarta’s defence choices are pulling in several directions at once. There are reports of ordering Chinese fighter jets. There is a new cooperation pact with Canada and Indonesia also took delivery of its first A400M strategic airlifter from Airbus.
This mix underscores a deliberate but difficult hedge. Indonesia is buying combat power from China while deepening ties with Western partners and fielding European airlift for regional reach. The result is capability diversification, but also friction in interoperability, sustainment, and partnerships.

What to watch

• What other fleets or capabilities might Indonesia contemplate sourcing from China?

• Whether Western partners predicate deeper cooperation on interoperability considerations and industrial opportunities

• A400M utilisation rates and any follow on packages such as spares, simulators, and depot work.

What to do

• Cautiously explore opportunities

Coming in future editions

India, Malaysia, United States, others

Upcoming events

• Defense and Security 2025, 10 to 13 November, Thailand

• Singapore Airshow, 3 to 8 February, Singapore, start planning now

What did we miss? What countries or developments should we be tracking? Reply to this email or reach out directly. Also check out:

DND/CAF 101

Figuring out Canadian defence

By Charlotte Duval-Lantoine

Welcome to the second edition of Canada X Indo-Pacific. This week we look at two things:

1. Sea changes happening in Canada’s defence sector and what they mean for Indo-Pacific firms looking to tap Canada’s growing market and;

2. Developments in the Indo-Pacific relevant to firms looking to expand in the region covering Singapore, Australia, Korea, Japan and others.
   
   

   Thanks for reading Canada X Indo-Pacific! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Canada - A Growing Defence Budget Changes Everything

What Happened:

• Canada is looking at $57.8B in spending by 2029/2030, of which at least ~20% should be CAPEX on new equipment, and an even more ambitious NATO pledge of 5% of GDP by 2035

• Defence Investment Agency launched and will handle procurements >$100M

• Minister of Foreign Affairs Anand is travelling to Singapore and India (Oct 12-17)

• Minister of International Trade Sidhu met Singapore’s Deputy PM

• Against backdrop of calls for diversifying sources of supply for defence goods in Canada, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency notifies Congress of Canada’s intent to acquire the HIMARS system

Watch For:

• How the government addresses procurements <$100M. This will tell you how serious the government is about reform and moving faster on procurement.

• What’s the next step with Hanwha’s CPSC bid and when will there be a significant delegation sent to South Korea? What other signals are there that Canada is serious about diversifying its supply base?

• Will Minister Anand’s trip set the stage for greater defence and security cooperation and trade with Singapore and India?

What You Should Do:

If you’re from a stable, like-minded Indo-Pacific country, you should be exploring opportunities in Canada. This includes familiarizing yourself with the decision-making styles and defence and foreign policy priorities. Identify ongoing procurements, and working to turn it into opportunities for a direct sale or complementary capabilities. In the case of HIMARS, will there be opportunities for providers of fire control, sensors, data processing, logistics etc?

Singapore - Punching Above its Weight & Scouting for Advanced Defence Tech

What Happened:

• DSTA called on to offer rapid procurement pathways to “skip the queue” and “scout” for early stage and promising technology partners

• New defence cooperation agreement signed with Australia includes fighter training access and deeper technology cooperation, specifically technology demos on Operation Trident

• Singapore getting attention for role as critical submarine cable hub as Bifrost subsea cable comes online

Watch For:

• Will there be any public comms on new rapid procurement tools from DSTA?

• What technologies are likely to be included in testing during exercise Trident?

• What sort of measures will be adopted to protect sub-sea infrastructure? What is public messaging on this topic?

What You Should Do:

If you’re a company looking to export, Singapore’s willingness to move quickly on procurement with small suppliers should get your attention. If you’re a policy maker looking to deepen defense technology cooperation, take note of the integration of fielding and testing of equipment into joint exercises between the Australians and the Singaporeans. Exploring opportunities to do the same should be at the top of your agenda.

Australia - Combining Operational Cooperation with Industrial Outcomes

What Happened:

• Australia works toward defence and security cooperation agreement with India covering submarine rescue, maritime security, and defence industrial cooperation

• Enhanced training facilities access and technology cooperation with Singapore (covered above)

Watch For:

• How will Australia respond to India’s offer to repair Australian Navy ships in Indian shipyards while on deployment to the Indian Ocean?

What You Should Do:

Could Canada replicate this playbook when signing up for exercise participation in the region? Would doing so increase the chances for industrial cooperation and trade diversification?

Japan - Political Transition Sets Defence Direction

What happened?

• Palace intrigue as the opposition party moves to block Sanae Takaichi’s election as PM.

Watch For:

• What are some of Takaichi’s positions on defense? Past evidence points to her being supportive of additional spending, greater interoperability with allies and promoting dual-use technologies and defense industrial cooperation

• As reported by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada’s weekly newsletter, will PM Carney make a pit stop in Japan? If he does, will it produce substantive defence-technology cooperation discussions?

What You Should Do:

Align with Japan’s interoperability goals. Show how your systems integrate into US/Japan/Allied architectures; bring case studies. Hedge for political change. Maintain modular, adaptable proposals that can survive a regime flip.

South Korea - Defence Industrial Muscle on Display & Strong Canadian Cooperation

What Happened:

• Live bid from Hanwha Ocean on CPSP still in play, what’s the next step of the process? How will Canada position itself to maximize benefits obtained, and what benefits does it want to go with the Korean bid?

• KAI-KF21 fighter (joint program with Indonesia) completed more pilot testing with Indonesian Air Force

• K9 howitzer deal with Norway and now Vietnam marks notable momentum for ROK and Vietnamese shift away from Russian suppliers

• Bombardier 6500 airframe selected for South Korea’s next AEW&C platform, and is baseline platform for both EW program contenders

Watch For:

• When and how will Canada engage with the RoK on the CPSP bid? Will Canada seek access for suppliers into Korean prime contractors to benefit from their export push?

• When will the EW platform competition results be announced? Will Canada engage with ROK as a strategic partner on these files or take a more arms length approach?

• What other major international efforts will bear fruit under the RoK’s export efforts?

What You Should Do:

Get familiarized with the RoK’s export ambitions and explore ways into Korean supply chains now if you are a Canadian firm. Enter the K-Oem orbit early. Offer small parallel testbeds or modules that reduce risk in Korean export bids (e.g. reliability submodules, local support).

Taiwan - Undersea Cables Under Pressure

What Happened:

• Grey zone activities focused on the 24 undersea cables (14 international and 10 domestic) that link Taiwan to the rest of the world for everything from the internet to financial transactions resulting in stepped up patrols and defense

• Recent Coast Guard incidents in the Dongsha Islands with incursions addressed by Taipei,

Watch For:

• Other evidence of complementary grey zone operations around Taiwan and other sub-sea cable focused activities in the broader region

What You Should Do:

Does your company have solutions focused either on maritime domain awareness (surface and sub-surface) or expertise rationalizing the deployment of sea and air based assets to maximise efficiencies and coverage? Map how those solutions fit into critical infrastructure protection and monitoring.

Other Notable Happenings

• Indonesia: PT PAL unveils KSOT autonomous submarine prototype

• Philippines: Manila recovers Chinese underwater drone in Philippine waters

Coming in Future Editions

India, Malaysia, Thailand, New Zealand, Philippines, US

Upcoming Events

• AIAC Summit (October 28-29) - Canada’s Premier Aerospace Trade Show (I’ll see you there!)

• ADEX (Seoul, October 21-26) – Republic of Korea’s premier defence exhibition

• Indo-Pacific (4-6 November) Australia

• Defense & Security 2025 (10-13 November) Thailand

• Singapore Airshow (3-8 February) Singapore (Start planning now)

What did we miss? What countries or developments should we be tracking? Reply to this email or reach out directly. Also check out for great insights from Vincent Marmion!

Share Canada X Indo-Pacific

This newsletter is for business leaders, policy practitioners, and industry professionals who need to understand how commercial and strategic opportunities are evolving in Pacific nations. Every two weeks I’ll track what to watch, what you should do and share ideas that shape market access and capability development. Market diversification is a critical imperative for Canada, and your business.

The last two weeks brought significant developments that highlight both Canada’s growing engagement in the Indo-Pacific and substantial opportunities ahead for Canadian defence and dual-use firms.

Indonesia - New Market Opens for Canadian Exporters

Canada and Indonesia signed two landmark agreements: the Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and a Defence Memorandum of Understanding (September 23), complementing the Military Cooperation MOU from late August. PM Carney and President Prabowo specifically called out CANSEC and the INDO Defence Forum as engagement platforms, committing to support national defence industry development.

Access to a 280-million-person market with significant cyber defence, maritime security, and capacity-building requirements. Indonesia is modernizing its military and investing heavily in domestic defence capabilities.

What to watch:

• Will there be a whole-of-government push to deepen ties in strategic sectors or will focus remain on traditional trade?

• How will Export Development Canada and the Canadian Commercial Corporation enable market entry?

• Indonesian procurement priorities in cyber, maritime patrol, and training systems

What you should do:

• Map your capabilities against Indonesia’s defence modernization priorities.

• Identify potential Indonesian partners before INDO Defence Forum.

South Korea - Realpolitik Returns to Canadian Procurement

The $20B+ defence package remains active with formal proposals covering submarines, K9 howitzers, K239 MLRS systems, and IFVs. Hanwha Ocean and TKMS were officially downselected in late August. At the All In conference, sources say a Canadian Minister stated Canada would expect any winner of the submarine procurement to be a partner that leverages Canadian strategic capabilities, specifically naming Cohere, Canada’s leading AI company.

This represents a notable shift in Canadian procurement philosophy, introducing a realist philosophy in strategic technologies. It mirrors approaches common in Europe and Asia but unusual for Canada.

What to watch:

• New MOUs around AI integration in defence systems

• Seoul ADEX (October 21-26) for announcements and side meetings

• Whether Germany matches Korea’s willingness to integrate Canadian AI capabilities

What you should do:

If you’re in AI/ML, robotics, or autonomous systems, you should be considering engaging with the national ecosystems of both bidding consortiums now.

If you’re bidding on major Canadian programs, you should consider if there might be opportunities for collaboration with Canadian National Champions.

Japan - Opening Doors for Deeper Cooperation

Japan launched Operation Atlantic Eagles — a two-week deployment of C-2 transports, KC-767/KC-46A refueling aircraft, and F-15s through Eielson AFB (US), Goose Bay (Canada), and onward to UK and Germany. This follows the recent Canada-Japan Information Sharing Agreement.

Japan, historically a challenging market for foreign defence firms, is actively building operational connections with like-minded partners. The deployment demonstrates Japan’s commitment to interoperability beyond the Indo-Pacific theater.

What to watch:

• Follow-on exercises or formalized cooperation frameworks

• Whether Canada plays a convening role connecting Japan with NATO partners

• Japanese participation in Canadian-led exercises

What you should do:

The Japanese government is exploring deeper partnerships. Industrial cooperation should follow. If you have dual-use technology or capabilities relevant to Japan’s modernization requirements, now is the time to engage through JETRO and others in the Japanese government or directly with Japanese integrators.

Singapore - The Most Densely Defended Country in the World Invests More

Singapore announced additional fighter aircraft purchases and acquisition of four P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to replace its aging Fokker 50 fleet earlier this month.* While a relatively small acquisition, it’s a meaningful investment for the city state.

Canada is part of the P-8 user community, creating natural collaboration opportunities in MRO, training systems, mission data management, and sustainment analytics. Multiple Canadian firms are already in the P-8 supply chain.

What to watch:

• Whether Singapore establishes a regional P-8 service center (likely through ST Engineering and Boeing)

• Training and simulation contracts as Singapore builds P-8 operator capacity

• Opportunities in mission data management and maritime domain awareness integration

What you should do:

P-8 supply chain companies should connect with ST Engineering and Boeing’s Singapore operations. Certain large training and simulation providers are probably already on the inside track for solutions in the market.

*this happened a bit outside the two week window, but what the heck. I’ll err on the side of inclusion in this case.

Taiwan - Unveils Counter-Drone Capabilities at TADTE

At the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition, NCSIST and Anduril unveiled the Barracuda 500 low-cost autonomous missile. Canadian company Airshare announced partnership with NCSIST on the Interceptor UX rocket system for counter-UAS missions. Meanwhile, US sources reported AIS signal spoofing in the Taiwan Strait, highlighting maritime surveillance gaps.

Counter-drone technology and maritime domain awareness are critical requirements across the region. Taiwan’s domestic defence industry is actively seeking international partners for co-development and technology transfer.

What to watch:

• Counter-UAS requirements across other Indo-Pacific partners

• Maritime surveillance technology needs driven by electronic warfare threats

• NCSIST partnership opportunities for Canadian firms in sensors, AI, and autonomy

What you should do:

Firms with counter-drone, electronic warfare, or maritime surveillance capabilities should explore NCSIST partnerships. Consider attending future TADTE and other events for direct engagement.

India - Relations Thawing?

Canada’s National Security & Intelligence Advisor met India’s NSA in New Delhi (Sept 18). Both sides flagged counterterrorism, transnational crime, and intelligence-sharing as immediate workstreams, and Ottawa issued a public readout on Sept 20 underscoring momentum.

While complete normalization of relations and topics like defence trade and cooperation are likely a little ways away, it shows some movement in a positive direction in one of the world’s largest markets.

What to watch:

• Is there sustained engagement over time? What other topics are addressed?

What you should do:

Wait and watch for now.

Looking Ahead

Coming in Future Editions: Australia, India, Malaysia, Thailand, New Zealand, Philippines, US and Canada

Upcoming Events:

• ADEX (Seoul, October 21-26) - Republic of Korea’s premier defence exhibition

• AUSA 2025 (Washington, October 13-15) - Major Indo-Pacific delegations attend

• DEFSEC Atlantic (Halifax, 30 September - 2 October)

What did we miss? What countries or developments should we be tracking? Reply to this email or reach out directly.

Subscribe to receive Canada X Indo-Pacific every two weeks in your inbox.

Given how complex and dynamic the region is, and that I’m based here in Singapore I’ve decided to start a bi-weekly update for clients and friends that are trying to stay on top of what’s going on in this part of the world called Canada x Indo-Pacific. Why? Canada can, and should play a bigger role here.

Just over the last few weeks we’ve seen lots of developments whether that was China’s 80^th Victory Day Parade earlier in September which featured the nuclear triad, hypersonic antiship missiles, unmanned systems and ‘information support’ units, or; Canada’s announcement that South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean has been downselected for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Program (CPSP) marking a major procurement decision. My friend Jonathan Berkshire Miller covered Canada’s new MOU on defence cooperation with Indonesia, and we’ve seen protests in Nepal, and strife and unrest in Indonesia, and Bangladesh.

The next edition will cover topics like this, major exercises, partnerships, technology developments etc.

For now though, I wanted to focus my first update on something practical for those looking to gain more exposure to the market. Here’s a summary of upcoming major defence trade shows in the region.

· TADTE — Sep 18–20, 2025, Taipei
https://www.tadte.com.tw/en/index.html

· Seoul ADEX — Oct 20–24, 2025, Seoul

https://www.seouladex.co.kr

· INDO PACIFIC — Nov 4–6, 2025, Sydney

https://www.indopacificexpo.com.au

· Defense & Security — Nov 10–13, 2025, Bangkok

https://www.asiandefense.com

· Singapore Airshow — Feb 3–8, 2026, Singapore

https://www.singaporeairshow.com

· DSA & NATSEC Asia — Apr 20–23, 2026, Kuala Lumpur

https://www.dsaexhibition.com.my

· Milipol Asia-Pacific — Apr 28–30, 2026, Singapore

https://www.milipolasiapacific.com

· ADAS — Sep 2–4, 2026, Manila

https://adas.ph

· AEDEX India — Sep 10–12, 2026, New Delhi

https://aedexindia.com

· DefExpo India — TBD 2026, venue TBD

Have a missed any? Are you planning on attending? If you’ll be at the Singapore Airshow or any of these drop me a line, it would be great to see some familiar faces and reconnect.

Also….

They say that imitation is the highest form of flattery. As part of my soft launch, I’ve decided to copy Vincent Marmion’s idea (see CanadaxEurope) and apply it to the Indo-Pacific. If you’re interested in Canada x Europe defence matters, check out his substack at:

CanadaxEurope

Canada and Europe are living a moment - let's make that moment brighter.

Lots of good stuff there!

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