Thank you to Barrie Sandbox for having me on the defence market entry mini-series earlier in October.
Also thanks to the Government of Alberta and Calgary Economic Development for hosting me in Calgary for their Level Up roundtable in October, and for the chance to meet Joseph Schow, Alberta’s Minister of Jobs, Economy, Trade and Immigration.
If you are an Ontario or Alberta firm considering exporting in defence, both programmes are worth a look.
Executive Summary
Ottawa tabled Bill C-40 on 6 October to establish the Canadian Corporation for Defence Investment, with some new and interesting powers. The agency had signed a non-binding term sheet with Saab on 25 September covering a potential acquisition of six GlobalEye aircraft, and the Defence Drone Initiative had pre-qualified 397 suppliers, with a further qualification round announced. Canada elevated Viet Nam to a Strategic Partnership with a defence pillar on 24 September, agreed with Singapore to negotiate an Economic Partnership Framework, and the Prime Minister’s senior diplomatic and international affairs adviser, David Morrison, discussed “a substantive bilateral defence relationship” with India’s National Security Adviser a week before the nearly 300-delegate mission to Mumbai, and Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to India and the UAE on 13-16 October with security and defence on her agenda. Canada joined a US-led statement on 7 October calling for action against structural excess capacity and market-distorting policies, alongside Japan, South Korea, India and Australia, and the Globe reported on 8 October that Canada’s participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) remains suspended pending a review, with a potential Carney-Xi meeting on the margins of APEC in Shenzhen on 18-19 November. The Philippine Coast Guard credited Canada’s Dark Vessel Detection programme with exposing a Chinese survey ship spoofing its position on the Batanes cable corridor. In industry new, Bharat Forge and Pratt & Whitney Canada announced two separate developments, an engine-integration evaluation for India’s indigenous high-altitude, long-endurance uncrewed aircraft and a long-term engine-components supply contract, Landing Zones Canada signed a stratospheric platform consortium with Meisei in Tokyo, and E3 Lithium signed a non-binding lithium carbonate understanding with India’s Epsilon CAM.
WHAT TO WATCH
Immediate (Next 30 Days)
Keen Sword 27, 19-29 October: Canada is on the partner list; which units go, and whether HMCS Regina is still in theatre, is unannounced.
Cap Vista Solicitation 6.0 closes 22 October (artificial intelligence, quantum, underwater, threat detection); open to Canadian firms.
ASEAN defence ministers, Cebu, 26-30 October: Manila chairs with Second Thomas Shoal fresh. Canada’s observership bid for 2027-2029 is written into the Viet Nam statement.
Deadlines: Avalon 2027 Canada Pavilion registration 31 October; Korea Defence and Dual-Use Technology accelerator 5 November; New Zealand polar patrol drone tender 8 November.
Medium-Term (Next Calendar Year)
Potential Carney-Xi meeting on the margins of APEC, Shenzhen, 18-19 November
Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP): Britain’s Prime Minister told Berlin on 8 October it is open to German membership; Germany has not decided.
K-DEX, 8-11 December, with a Canada pavilion; Vietnam International Defence Expo, 10-13 December.
Strategic (2027+)
In the last month, there were reports of Washington restricting intelligence sharing with Seoul; and reports the U.S. also ran agents doing covert security audits on Australian bases. How will this affect the U.S.’s position in the Pacific with other partners?
CANADA: C-40 Tabled, GlobalEye Term Sheet, China on Two Tracks, Five Eyes in Halifax
C-40 and the Crown corporation: Bill C-40, tabled 6 October, would establish the Canadian Corporation for Defence Investment, which could continue operating as the Defence Investment Agency. The Defence Drone Initiative had pre-qualified 397 suppliers, with DND announcing a further qualification round and additional competitive opportunities; qualification establishes eligibility to compete and is not itself an equipment order. The agency signed a non-binding term sheet with Saab on 25 September covering a potential acquisition of six GlobalEye aircraft, with configuration and industrial participation still under discussion.
China on two tracks: Canada joined a US-led statement on 7 October calling for action against structural excess capacity and market-distorting policies, agreed alongside an OECD Trade Committee meeting after the G20 trade meeting failed to reach consensus; Japan, South Korea, India and Australia were among the 15 signatories, and China, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa were not. The Globe reported on 8 October that the Finance Minister’s office says Canada’s AIIB participation remains suspended pending a review; former officials quoted expect a decision around a potential Carney-Xi meeting on the margins of APEC in Shenzhen on 18-19 November. Canada holds about 1% of the bank from a 2018 commitment.
Credit: Digital Visual Information Distribution System, US DOW Presence: Canada hosted the Five Eyes Maritime Warfare Working Group in Halifax on 21-25 September: nearly 90 tactical leaders, scientists and warfare specialists from Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US, covering undersea, mine and information warfare and uncrewed systems. HMCS Ottawa, HMCS Corner Brook and a CP-140 rehearsed maritime strikes with US forces in the Bering Sea on 18-22 September; Ottawa returned to Esquimalt on 9 October. HMCS Regina called at Sihanoukville on 22-24 September. Canada is on the partner list for Keen Sword 27 (19-29 October) per the Japan Joint Staff.
Watch: Who goes to Keen Sword? How do tariffs continue to affect decisions on acquisitions and defence industrial relations?
VIET NAM: Strategic Partnership, Defence Agenda, December Expo
The partnership and its defence pillar: Secretary General To Lam’s state visit on 24-25 September produced a Strategic Partnership on eight pillars, the seventh covering defence, security, maritime, law enforcement and justice. It names humanitarian assistance and disaster response, maritime law enforcement capacity building and Canadian industry participation in the Vietnam International Defence Expo as cooperation to pursue, with Viet Nam to open a permanent Defence Attaché Office in Canada. The text covers Canada’s aspiration to ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus experts’ working group observership for 2027-2029, which requires ASEAN consensus.
McGuinty and Phan Van Giang: The two ministers met at National Defence Headquarters on 25 September and agreed to concentrate on training, UN peacekeeping (Canada to support Vietnamese participation), cybersecurity, defence industry and addressing the consequences of war.
Vietnam International Defence Expo, 10-13 December, Hanoi: the third edition, at Gia Lam Airport. The Trade Commissioner Service ran a Canadian registration that closed 30 September. Viet Nam is diversifying away from Russian-origin equipment.
Watch: Which Canadian firms show in Hanoi, and does the Defence Policy Dialogue get a date?
JAPAN: Landing Zones-Meisei, GCAP Open to Germany, Keen Sword, Koizumi on Nuclear Options
A Canadian company deal under the March partnership: Landing Zones Canada and Meisei Electric signed a three-year stratospheric platform consortium at Canada’s embassy in Tokyo on 1 October. NEO Battery Materials signed a letter of intent on 3 September with Japanese drone makers Liberaware and Hinotate on battery supply and a possible plant in Japan. Tokyo frames Canada’s observer seat in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) as an export opening.
GCAP opens a door to Berlin: Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Chancellor Friedrich Merz on 8 October that Britain is open to Germany joining GCAP; exploratory talks had begun, Germany has not decided, and Japanese and Italian positions are not public. Edgewing opened its first engineering site in Turin on 8-9 October with Japanese secondees in place. Canada was admitted as an observer in July. Ottawa has yet to say what participation level, funding commitment and industrial role it is seeking if the partnership expands.
Security policy: Koizumi said on 28 September that Japan should debate nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines “without taboos”, then said no policy had been decided; Takaichi said the non-nuclear principles stand but did not say whether the December documents will restate them (The Independent, 30 September).
Watch: What is Ottawa asking for in GCAP? What will Japan’s updated defence policies say?
SOUTH KOREA: Ottawa Tours the Air Defence Plants, Hanwha Weighs a Vehicle Plant, Hypersonic Test
The Canadian delegation: A Department of National Defence team toured LIG and Hanwha Aerospace plants and the air and missile defence operations centre in the last week of September. Cho Hyun and Anita Anand agreed on 7 October to expand defence industry, critical minerals and artificial intelligence cooperation, with a joint committee in Seoul in November; Seoul asked for institutional support for Korean battery investment in Canada. The Toronto Star reports Hanwha is weighing a joint venture to build military vehicles in Canada after the submarine decision (single source).
Industry: Montreal’s RSAT Space became INNOSPACE’s first Canadian launch distributor on 21 September, non-exclusive, no launch sold yet. Correction to the 17th: Canada’s Seoul Defense Dialogue delegation was led by Senior Associate Deputy Minister Kevin Brosseau with Lieutenant-General Derek Macaulay, with bilaterals with Korea, the Philippines, Japan and Thailand.
Strategic programmes under alliance strain: the Cabinet approved a special bill on the nuclear-powered submarine programme on 29 September and sent it to the National Assembly, where it awaits passage; the Agency for Defense Development flew the first indigenous hypersonic glide vehicle on 8 October with President Lee watching; the National Intelligence Service acknowledged on 11 October that Washington has restricted some North Korea nuclear-related intelligence since March while saying cooperation continues in other areas.
Watch: Does Hanwha identify a Canadian partner, location, investment commitment or production mandate?
INDIA: Bharat Forge-Pratt & Whitney Canada, Morrison-Doval, CEPA Rounds
Two Pratt & Whitney Canada developments: On 15 September Bharat Forge and Pratt & Whitney Canada announced work to evaluate integrating Canadian turboprop engines into the Defence Research and Development Organisation’s indigenous high-altitude, long-endurance uncrewed aircraft, Pratt assessing compatibility and installation, Bharat Forge leading engine-airframe integration. This is an evaluation of engine integration. On 5 October Bharat Forge announced a long-term contract to supply mission-critical engine components to Pratt & Whitney Canada from its Indian aerospace facility. This is a supply contract.
Diplomacy and trade: David Morrison, the Prime Minister’s senior diplomatic and international affairs adviser, met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on 5-7 October in the two countries’ security dialogue at national security adviser level; the readout cites “a substantive bilateral defence relationship” and planned cyber and economic security dialogues. Global Affairs Canada announced on 12 October that Foreign Minister Anita Anand visits India and the UAE on 13-16 October, with security and defence among her agenda items with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Minister Sidhu leads nearly 300 delegates to Mumbai and Bengaluru on 12-17 October, aerospace and space among five priority sectors.
Economic security, commercially: E3 Lithium and Epsilon CAM signed a non-binding understanding on 14 September contemplating up to 5,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate for five years from the Clearwater project in Alberta, up to 40% of planned Stage 1 output, for Indian cathode-material production. This is prospective supply, conditional on a definitive agreement, permitting and a final investment decision.
Watch: Do the ministerial visits and trade mission produce specific defence-industrial commitments?
SINGAPORE: Underwater Infrastructure Security, Cyber Centre Guidance, Economic Partnership Framework, Cap Vista 6.0
Underwater infrastructure, and Canada’s own guidance: Singapore continued promoting the Guiding Principles for Underwater Infrastructure Defence Exchanges (GUIDE), its voluntary framework for protecting critical underwater infrastructure, in a 23 September statement; seventeen countries endorsed the initiative at its May launch and Canada was not among them. On 1 October Singapore welcomed Germany’s interest in joining. The same day the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security published Cyber security considerations for submarine cables, covering physical protection of cables and landing sites, network security, supplier risk and resilience. Commercially, the guidance points to monitoring, inspection, secure communications and infrastructure protection as the relevant Canadian capabilities.
The framework and the cyber track: Anand and Balakrishnan agreed on 18 September to negotiate an Economic Partnership Framework covering artificial intelligence, quantum, cybersecurity, critical minerals and supply chains. Singapore International Cyber Week’s programme scheduled an ASEAN-Canada Symposium on Countering Scam Centres and Cyber-Enabled Crime for 13 October, co-organised by Global Affairs Canada and Singapore; no outcomes had been reported at publication. Cap Vista Solicitation 6.0 closes 22 October and is open to Canadian firms.
Watch: Does the framework text acquire a defence or cable-security line? Will Canada get involved in GUIDE?
AUSTRALIA: Macrodyne-Nioa at Land Forces, Naval Strike Missile Commonality, Tomahawk Planning, Henderson
Munitions: At Land Forces 2026 in Perth (6-8 October), NIOA and Ontario’s Macrodyne Technologies announced a partnership to explore Australian manufacturing of advanced munitions, including filling, pressed explosives and kinetic effectors for counter-uncrewed aerial systems; no factory or production order is committed. Kongsberg Australia and Zone 5 signed on affordable mass-produced missiles beside Kongsberg’s Williamtown plant for the Naval Strike Missile, the same missile Canada has chosen for the River-class destroyers. Nioa’s Maryborough line for the US-pattern M795 shell is on schedule; Canada is building its own M795 capacity at General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems’ Repentigny plant under a 2025 engineering contract.
AUKUS and the alliance: . The State Department cleared a US$300 million Tomahawk mission-planning sale on 8 October, three years after the missiles. Anduril pitched its Baltimore submarine-section yard in Perth. Media reports that US agents had entered restricted areas of Australian bases during covert security audits: base security is “front and centre”. Bloomberg reported that sensitive F-35 components diverted to Hong Kong are now held by China; Marles played the episode down as US congressional committees opened reviews.
Watch: How do these audits play out against public opinion?
NEW ZEALAND: Strait Transit, Frigate Choice Open, Polar Drone Tender
Presence: The frigate HMNZS Te Mana and the replenishment ship HMNZS Aotearoa completed UN sanctions patrols off North Korea on 23 September before transiting the Taiwan Strait; Te Mana’s passage was the first by a New Zealand frigate in nine years. Wellington extended Operation Olympic Defender participation to August 2028 alongside Canada, and the two Anzac navies signed Plan Tasman.
Decisions: The frigate choice, upgraded Mogami or Type 31, remains open. The Ministry of Defence opened a tender on 6 October, closing 8 November, for a ship-launched polar patrol uncrewed aerial system for Southern Ocean patrols; overseas bidders are not excluded. Wellington declined to join the Canada-led Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, and ACT’s fiscal plan ring-fenced defence increases ahead of the 7 November election.
Watch: Does a Canadian cold-weather drone supplier bid? Does the election move the frigate timetable?
TAIWAN: Package Frozen, Stingers Flow, Trade Arrangement Unsigned
Arms and the holiday: The proposed US$14 billion arms sale remained unapproved through Xi’s Washington visit and National Day. Taipei Times, citing a defence official and military documents, reports that the first batch of 500 Stinger missiles and 178 launchers is due by year-end, out of 2,621 missiles and 763 launchers being acquired in two stages. Lai’s 10 October address rested on asymmetric weapons and Indo-Pacific partners, and the Ministry of National Defense counted two to four People’s Liberation Army aircraft around Taiwan on each of 8, 9 and 12 October, per Taiwan News tallies. The Military Police Command is becoming an 11,000-strong motorised force built around counter-drone kit.
Canada: Global Affairs confirmed the Canada-Taiwan trade arrangement initialed in March 2025 is still “being considered for signature”. Captec Americas of Cambridge, Ontario formed a rugged-computing alliance with Taiwan’s Cincoze; the Trade Commissioner Service is organising an uncrewed-systems delegation to Taiwan for 25-28 January 2027; and a former Japanese ground forces chief proposed adding Taiwan to Japan’s arms-export list for drone co-production.
Watch: Is the arrangement signed before the January delegation?
OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Philippines: The Philippine Coast Guard credited Canada’s Dark Vessel Detection programme with exposing a Chinese survey ship that was spoofing its position on the Batanes cable corridor, and counted Chinese hulls around four features nearly doubling to 101 in September. The China Coast Guard rammed a fisheries vessel off Palawan on 18 September
Laos: China opened a joint training and support centre at Ban Keun, 50 kilometres from Vientiane, which the South China Morning Post quoted Brian Hart of the Center for Strategic and International Studies describing as China’s first acknowledged overseas military facility centred on air power; satellite imagery showed attack aircraft and military vehicles on site within a week.
North Korea: four launch events in a month, including an intermediate-range missile with a claimed hypersonic warhead on 3 October and multiple ballistic missiles on 12 October. The Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, Canada among eleven signatories, reported up to 101,280 North Korean workers abroad.
Indonesia: parliament’s defence commission backed Chinese J-10 fighters; Prabowo stood up 204 new units on 5 October, including two air squadrons and two radar units.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Best Defence Conference 2026 | 20-21 October | London, Ontario
Cap Vista Solicitation 6.0 closes | 22 October | Singapore
Dual-city artificial intelligence and smart-ports trade delegation | 26-30 October | Singapore and Bangkok
CADSI International Market Assessment: South Korea (virtual) | 27 October | Online
Deep Blue Forum 2026 | 27 October | Ottawa
Canadian Aerospace Summit 2026 | 27-28 October | Ottawa
Avalon 2027 Canada Pavilion registration closes | 31 October | Online
Korea Defence and Dual-Use Technology accelerator applications close | 5 November | Online
New Zealand polar patrol uncrewed aerial system tender closes | 8 November | Government Electronic Tenders Service, New Zealand
Pier71 Smart Port Challenge Grand Finale | 11 November | Singapore
MilCIS 2026 | 17-19 November | Canberra
Halifax International Security Forum 2026 | 20-22 November | Halifax
K-DEX 2026 | 8-11 December | KINTEX, Goyang
Vietnam International Defence Expo 2026 | 10-13 December | Hanoi
Canadian uncrewed-systems delegation to Taiwan | 25-28 January 2027 | Taiwan
IDEX 2027 | 25-29 January 2027 | Abu Dhabi
Aero India 2027 | 8-12 February 2027 | Bengaluru
Avalon 2027 | 23-28 February 2027 | Geelong