Executive Summary
Trade talks with Washington collapsed on 21 August, 50% tariffs followed, and Ottawa’s counter-tariffs started on 8 September. Washington answered with import bans, announced plans to remove Canadian-origin products from General Services Administration purchasing schedules, and a presidential threat to bar Bombardier from the United States market. Meanwhile in Victoria, where Canada co-hosted 29 Indo-Pacific chiefs of defence, US Admiral Samuel Paparo called Canada an indispensable partner and said there is no United States demand that Canada buy American equipment. Two days later Ottawa held its first defence coordination dialogue with China in eight years. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems says the submarine negotiation will resolve price and specifications by year-end, and the Defence Drone Initiative made its first awards. For emerging Canadian firms, there are opportunities in Singapore, the recent Catfish releases, and evidence of growing traction in Japan with seven Canadian firms engaged in the accelerator and pitch competition cohosted by the Canadian Embassy and Plug and Play.
WHAT TO WATCH
Immediate (Next 30 Days)
Cap Vista: the Deep Blue Observer maritime domain awareness challenge, run by Singapore’s Ministry of Defence with the United States Defense Innovation Unit, closes 24 September Eastern time (25 September in Singapore); the maritime hazards challenge closes 29 September. Both are open to Canadian firms.
Trump-Xi, 24 September: Upcoming meeting in the US. Beijing says a Taiwan arms package could cancel the visit.
Tokyo, 28 September - 2 October: seven Canadian firms pitch and exhibit under the Canadian Technology Accelerator; Canada-Japan co-development projects have to come from somewhere!
Medium-Term (2026)
Cap Vista Solicitation 6.0 Singapore - artificial intelligence, quantum, underwater, threat detection) closes 22 October.
CPSP: if price and specifications are not settled by December, expect there to be delays; watch which Canadian firms join CAE, E3 Lithium, Valbruna ASW and Cohere on the TKMS team and whether or not TKMS picks up partners from the Hanwha bid
Korea: a dated wartime operational control transfer at the fall Security Consultative Meeting concerns the combined Korea-United States command, with implications for how it coordinates with the United Nations Command that Canadian officers serve in.
Strategic (2026+)
The China channel: Ottawa now has a working-level military dialogue with Beijing; watch for the foreign policy refresh and what it says. h
GCAP: Ambassador McKay says full membership is the ultimate objective; the fighter review and the programme’s reported end-2026 window for new partners now sit on the same calendar.
CANADA: Procurement Becomes the Tariff Battlefield, Paparo Draws a Line, CPSP on the Clock
The tariff war reaches procurement: Talks broke down less than an hour before the 21 August deadline, 50% duties on about $20 billion of Canadian goods followed, and Ottawa’s 15, 25 and 50% counter-tariffs took effect 8 September. Secretary of State Stephen Fuhr said sole-sourcing American kit is now very difficult.
Paparo calls reporter emotional (and Canada indispensable), new(ish) channel opens with China: At the 28th Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense Conference in Victoria, Admiral Paparo said military relationships are executed without emotion and that there is no demand that Canada buy American equipment. General Yang Zhibin of the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command attended and met Paparo, the second theatre-level United States-China contact since 2022. On 4 September Canadian officials held the fifth Canada-China defence coordination dialogue.
32 nations gather in Victoria for Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense conference, US PACOM CPSP on the clock, DIA chief stays: Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems chief Oliver Burkhard’s first visit since the July decision produced the clearest timeline yet: price and specifications settled by year-end, first delivery 2033 if Berlin and Oslo cede slots, and a named Canadian bench of CAE, E3 Lithium, Valbruna ASW, Cohere and Isar Aerospace’s Nova Scotia site. The Globe reported Doug Guzman was leaving the Defence Investment Agency; a fortnight later he told staff he is staying. CBC reported that GlobalEye was selected before the military confirmed it met requirements; the government (rightly) says many elements must be weighed and factor into a decision.
Drones get real money: The Defence Drone Initiative moved from pre-qualification to six initial awards on 10 September worth up to $50 million in total. Volatus and Draganfly each received initial orders for 100 tactical surveillance drones with options for up to 4,900 more over five years, at about $5,000 a unit; Draganfly’s platform is Australian technology built under licence in Canada. Nearly 400 suppliers are pre-qualified.
Presence: HMCS Charlottetown came home after six months on Operations Horizon and Neon (45,000 nautical miles, 13 ports, 15 partner nations), HMCS Regina sailed Pacific Vanguard off Guam, HMCS Ottawa and MV Asterix worked from Yokosuka, HMCS Robert Hampton Gray is crossing the Northwest Passage to the Pacific fleet, and Canadians exercised in Super Garuda Shield. Lieutenant-General Derek Macaulay completed his first circuit as Senior Military Representative, and Manila reiterated support to host his office.
Watch: How does the Air Force react to the rebalancing of priorities as evinced by the Global Eye decision? What is the Beijing channel for exactly?
JAPAN: A Record Request with Blank Lines, Seven Canadians in Tokyo, GCAP Ambition
The Canada channel gets names: Plug and Play Japan and the Embassy named the Canadian Technology Accelerator cohort: GRi Simulations, TACTIQL, NZ Technologies, Mostar Labs, Dominant Information Solutions Canada, M2M TECH and MarineLabs, pitching in Shibuya on 28 September and exhibiting at Tokyo Big Sight from 30 September. Ambassador Ian McKay told Jiji that full GCAP membership is the ultimate objective, naming aircraft, mission control systems, radar and satellite technology as Canada’s contribution, two days after Edgewing awarded an 18-month contract to develop the fighter’s integrated sensing and communications suite to the GCAP Electronics Evolution consortium of Leonardo, ELT Group, Mitsubishi Electric and Leonardo UK.
Plug and Play News Release 8.9 trillion yen, about 160 items unpriced: The Ministry of Defense’s fiscal 2027 request, a fifteenth straight increase, puts drones, artificial intelligence and stand-off missiles first. Tokyo also set out plans for artificial-intelligence-equipped satellites to speed counterstrike decisions and agreed with Washington on 5 September to reinforce critical minerals supply chains. The requirements-shaping window for the Tokyo cohort, and for Canadian space and minerals suppliers, is now.
Yards and partners: The United States Navy opened a formal evaluation of the Mogami and upgraded FFM against Korean and Turkish frigates, and Japanese industry promptly cooled due to its existing pipeline and likely investment requirements in the US. Bombardier agreed to acquire the assets of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Canada Aerospace in Mississauga, about 750 employees, closing expected later this year. Japanese yard capacity is spoken for; the Canada-Japan transfer agreement still has no flagship projects
Watch: Still no flagship project; does the Tokyo pitch day on 28 September produce one?
SOUTH KOREA: A Five-Day Exercise, First Nuclear Submarine Money, Hanwha Everywhere but Canada
Ulchi in five days: Trump ordered the exercise substantially reduced a day before it began; it ran 17-21 August instead of 27, the counteroffensive phase was cancelled, North Korea fired about ten missiles, and Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back said two operational control assessments were still completed with full operational capability certification targeted by year-end.
Seoul spending and new nuclear subs: The 2027 request of 73.28 trillion won, up 8.2%, carries the first Jangbogo-N funding and 3.3 trillion won for KF-21 production; Seoul notified the International Atomic Energy Agency it will seek an Article 14 arrangement for naval propulsion.
Despite CPSP, opportunities grow: Canada sent a request for information on the Arion-SMET uncrewed ground vehicle. NEO Battery Materials took its first direct Republic of Korea Army order for drone battery packs alongside validation orders from drone makers in Japan, South Korea and the United States and, on 3 September, a battery manufacturing partnership with a Japanese drone maker. At the Seoul Defense Dialogue, Canada was represented by Senior Associate Deputy Minister Kevin Brosseau, with Minister McGuinty in Poland.
Watch: Who in Ottawa keeps the Defence Cooperation Agreement talks warm? Will there be a consolation prize for Hanwha?
AUSTRALIA: Exports and Ranges for Tokyo
Australia builds export infrastructure: Launched a US$3 billion Defence Industry Growth Facility through Export Finance Australia.
Ranges for Tokyo: Koizumi and Marles agreed a framework to test Japanese long-range and hypersonic missiles in Australia. Cold weather testing requirements?
Watch: Does Canberra’s testing framework with Tokyo meet Japan’s requirements, or could Canada offer cold weather testing or something similar?
TAIWAN: A Proposed NT$1.1 Trillion Budget, Bombardier Deal
The money and the fight: The Cabinet proposed a NT$1.1225 trillion 2027 defence budget, 3.01% of GDP, down from the budget this year.
The Canada week: Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation signed a 20-year agreement to build Challenger 3500 forward fuselages for Bombardier, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet met President Lai and pledged to keep pressing Ottawa to sign the trade framework whose negotiations concluded in early 2025 and which still awaits signature, and China slowed germanium and quartz shipments to Taiwan, could this create an opening for Canada?
Aerospace Industrial Development Corp chairman Tsao Chin-pin, second left, shakes hands with Bombardier Inc executive vice president for programs and supply chain Eric Filion, second right, as Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming-hsin, left, and Canadian Trade Office in Taipei Executive Director Marie-Louise Hannan clap at a contract handover ceremony in Taipei yesterday. Credit: CNA
Watch: Does Ottawa sign the trade framework before the October parliamentary delegation? Does the NT$145.7 billion supplementary clear the Legislative Yuan intact?
OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Philippines: Canadian and Philippine officials met in Seoul to map cyber, unmanned systems, electronic warfare and dark vessel detection under the visiting forces agreement, and Manila’s defence department backs hosting Macaulay’s office; the Philippine Coast Guard credited Canada’s Dark Vessel Detection programme with tracking a Chinese ship at Scarborough Shoal for weeks. Ottawa still needs to exchange the diplomatic notes.
Singapore: Cap Vista opened Solicitation 6.0 (closes 22 October) and, with the United States Defense Innovation Unit, the Deep Blue Observer maritime domain awareness challenge (closes 24 September Eastern); the maritime hazards challenge closes 29 September, and global firms are eligible. Singapore’s navy also exercised with the People’s Liberation Army Navy from 5 September.
India: The Defence Acquisition Council approved Rs 1.10 trillion in acquisition proposals, about 98% to be sourced from domestic industry. Both governments target concluding trade talks by the end of 2026; the Team Canada mission lands 12-17 October.
Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur filed a claim of more than a billion ringgit against Kongsberg over the cancelled Naval Strike Missile;
Vietnam: Canada’s trade deputy minister Glenn Purves met Deputy Foreign Minister Dang Hoang Giang in Hanoi on 10 September, with both sides committing to work toward elevating ties.
New Zealand: HMNZS Te Mana went on a first Anzac-class North Korea sanctions patrol with a Lockheed Martin Canada combat system aboard, and Wellington and Washington announced a US$60 million port at Penrhyn; the frigate decision, Mogami or Type 31, is still open.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Cap Vista Deep Blue Observer challenge closes | 24 September (Eastern) | Singapore
Cap Vista maritime hazards challenge closes | 29 September | Singapore
Canadian Technology Accelerator Japan mission | 28 September - 2 October | Tokyo
DEFSEC Atlantic 2026 | 6 - 8 October | Halifax
Land Forces 2026 | 6 - 8 October | Perth
Team Canada Trade Mission to India | 12 - 17 October | Mumbai and Bengaluru
Best Defence Conference 2026 | 20 - 21 October | London, Ontario
Cap Vista Solicitation 6.0 closes | 22 October | Singapore
CADSI International Market Assessment: South Korea (virtual) | 27 October | Online
Deep Blue Forum 2026 | 27 October | Ottawa
Canadian Aerospace Summit 2026 | 27 - 28 October | Ottawa
Pier71 Smart Port Challenge Grand Finale | 11 November | Singapore
MilCIS 2026 | 17 - 19 November | Canberra
Halifax International Security Forum 2026 | 20 - 22 November | Halifax
K-DEX 2026 | 8 - 11 December | KINTEX, Goyang
Vietnam International Defence Expo 2026 | 10 - 13 December | Hanoi
Thank you for another great events roundup, Mr. Petric.