Canada x Indo-Pacific 7th Ed.
12 January – 26 January
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Carney doctrine (world is getting more brutal, middle powers should work together to avoid being victims of great power competition) rolls out at Davos ; PM’s 2026 trade blitz will lean into the Indo-Pacific. Singapore builds capability with P-8A purchase in advance of the Singapore Airshow (see you there!) Taiwan faces sustained gray-zone pressure, and moves into 155mm co-production. India makes a big purchase and is likely to ease restrictions on defence FDI as Canada lines up critical minerals engagement. Japan and Canada operationalize security of information agreement by trading diplomatic notes; Japan may head into snap election. South Korea (officially) launches next-gen EW aircraft effort, and will host Team Canada trade mission as Hanwha and TKMS escalate Canada plays. Australia likely to see Canadian PM visit in March; Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN) and hypersonic defence remain quiet, but for how long? Philippines provides live Canadian export proof point: GeoSpectrum Technologies Inc.’s Towed Reelable Active Passive Sonar (TRAPS) in new Patrol vessel amidst ongoing CAF cyber training.
Summary of Critical Information & Key Action Items For Policy Makers and Industry Executives
Immediate (Next 30 Days)
Singapore window: Convert upcoming Singapore Airshow and Canada-in-Asia meetings into concrete announceables, partnerships and opportunities.
South Korea trade mission prep: Build focused ROK prospect list around major S. Korean export priorities. Carry proof point of successful industrial collaboration—GeoSpectrum’s TRAPS export on Philippine OPVs manufactured by South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries. Explore opportunities on recently announced EW program.
Medium-Term (2026)
Carney trade blitz: Prioritize stops with emerging levers like shared interests (Singapore) information-sharing now in force (Japan), upcoming PM visit (Australia), upcoming trade delegation amidst CPSP discussions (South Korea), FDI easing, growing military spending (India).
India thaw: Given warming relations and the changing defence landscape what are you doing to explore market opportunity?
Strategic (2026+)
155mm co-production: Define viable Canadian role with Taiwanese and U.S. partners that clears export-control and security requirements.
Variable-geometry opportunities: Target flexible, coalition-aligned projects where Canada is welcome and useful—information security with Japan, EW and mission systems in Korea, radar or hypersonics research lines with Australia.
CANADA: The Carney Doctrine and a 2026 trade blitz
Between two powers: PM Carney wrapped up China trip while walking careful line. Outcomes include lower tariffs on Canadian canola and a quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles that can be sold in Canada. Former U.S. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response.
Emergence of the Carney Doctrine: Carney’s Davos address drew wide attention. Just before his remarks, Singapore’s Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing delivered speech at Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa with similar themes, suggesting converging vocabulary.
Trade blitz: 2026 push across Indo-Pacific set to include Japan, Australia, South Korea, and others.
Watch: Carney’s Davos speech points toward Singapore-style foreign policy: Invest in hard capabilities and issue-specific alliances rather than relying on fading protection of global institutions.
SINGAPORE: The original Carney Doctrine practitioners?
Shangri-La Dialogue: Sherpa dialogue wrapped up. See Canada note for Minister Chan Chun Sing’s speech emphasizing small states should build capabilities to stay relevant. United States hosted FVEYS meeting.
P-8A sale approved by US State Dept: Singapore officially approved to acquire four Poseidon aircraft, joining customers that include Canada, United States, New Zealand, and Australia.
Singapore Airshow: Big ramp up ahead of Singapore Airshow. Preliminary list of Canadian firms represented. See you there!
Watch: Major announcements and partnerships at Singapore Airshow. Anything we can learn from the Singaporeans who know how to perform the balancing act?
TAIWAN: drone incursions, fishing boat militia blockades and 155mm coproduction
Pratas incursion and fishing militia blockade: Confirmed violation of Taiwanese airspace. Beyond drone incursions, large gray zone escalation surfaced. 200 mile long floating barrier of more than 1,400 Chinese maritime militia fishing ships confirmed in East China Sea. Appears to be rehearsal for clog-and-contain blockade strategy.
Special budget meets opposition: Opposition demanded greater transparency; government released list of weapons systems to be acquired from United States for US$39.6B. Key items include 82 HIMARS units and 2,000 counter-drone systems.
Reinforcements against decapitation tactics: military police unit responsible for protecting government leaders, guarding strategic facilities etc equipped with additional anti-aircraft missiles.
155mm artillery shell production: Taiwan’s Armaments Bureau confirmed plan to jointly produce 155mm shells with United States on Taiwanese soil. Moves Taiwan from consumer to production node.
Watch: Indicators like fishing boat militia blockade and incursions are probably better signals of overall regional stability.
INDIA: opening the door to foreign investment, PM visit, critical minerals
Big deals context: :Large trade deal with EU and potential record military purchase of 114 fighters from France.
Foreign investment in defence: India planning to ease rules to boost foreign investment in domestic defence firms, lifting FDI cap to 74%.
Bilateral relations and collaboration: Amid some additional clarity in bilateral relations and growing interest in collaborating, is now the time to move? This Indian think tank thinks so, and is advocating for cooperation with Canada’s leading companies including CAE, Blackberry, Pratt & Whitney and more.
Carney in India: Prime Minister planning to travel in February.
Free trade agreement: Ongoing negotiation of Canada–India agreement, with announceables expected if the PM travels.
Critical minerals and rare earths: Minister Hodgson will travel to India to build critical mineral partnerships amid skepticism. Likely laying the groundwork for PM’s upcoming visit.
Watch: Any news in advance of PM Carney trip? Who will first movers from Canadian industry given thawing relations?
JAPAN: Security of information, snap election, and subsea cable working groups
Security of Information Agreement: Officially operationalized through exchange of diplomatic notes. Will ease flow of information and classified materials paving the way for industrial cooperation.
Potential snap election: Unlikely substantive engagement in country until political dust settles.
Subsea cable working group: The Montreal Institute for Global Security is sending a Canadian delegation to Japan as part of the Canada-Japan Subsea Cable Project.
Watch: What is the status of the technology transfer agreement? Will there be supplementary engagement in Japan during other trade delegations in region given likely election?
SOUTH KOREA: Next generation EW aircraft, trade delegation, and Hanwha push
Next generation EW aircraft: Bombardier’s Global 6500 will be basis, but what other opportunities are there? Training? EW? Sustainment?
Trade delegation: Team Canada and an upcoming trade mission to Republic of Korea.
Hanwha push: Appoints Glen Copeland, announces Newfoundland LNG, and advanced manufacturing in Quebec. TKMS on their own tear, announcing partnership with Cohere. TKMS answers with its own industrial cooperation push. Another delegation on the way!
Watch: Other industrial partnerships in advance of CPSP announcements on margins of trade mission. When is the Next Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting for SDCP (Security and Defence Co-operation Partnership)? How deep will the CPSP competitors commitments go?
AUSTRALIA: PM visit in March, JORN deliverables & Hypersonics?
PM visit: PM Carney plans to visit Australia in March following violent agreement from PM Albanese on Davos speech.
Watch: Not much has been heard publicly on deliverables or activities on JORN and funding announced in 2024 on the hypersonic defence research commitment. Will there be announceables during the PM’s visit in March? What other areas of cooperation? Will Canada take this as opportunity to accelerate its work on AUKUS Pillar II?
OTHER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Spending and fleet growth: Region-wide upgrades and expansion highlighted ahead of Singapore Airshow.
United States: US overhauls defence innovation.
Indonesia: Ongoing debate on force size and modernization, with attention on fleet growth trends.
New Zealand: Five Eyes digital leadership summit activity moving from planning to action (6 Jan).
Philippines: Canada conducted military cyber security operations course for Armed Forces of the Philippines. First Rajah Sulayman class OPV arrived, highlighting TRAPS powered active sonar systems. Ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries—good example of benefits of being in supply chain. Code of Conduct discussions in South China Sea remain in focus.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Space Summit 2026 | February 2-3 | Singapore
Singapore Airshow 2026 | February 3-6 | Singapore
Canada-in-Asia Conference 2026 | February 10-11 | Singapore
Subsea Security & Defence 2026 | February 10-13 | Singapore
DSA and NATSEC Asia | 20-23 April | Kuala Lumpur
Shangri-La Dialogue | May 29 – 31 | Singapore
Accelerated Procurement, Grants & Diversification Opportunity Tracker
Update Forthcoming in Next Edition…
Did we miss something? If so, let us know.
Couldn't agree more. Your analysis of middle power cooperation is briliant. I wonder about the potential for deeper educational and AI research partnerships.