Canada X Indo-Pacific Goes Live
September 16-29, 2025
Welcome to Canada X Indo-Pacific — your brief where geopolitics meets defence technology in the world’s most dynamic region.
This newsletter is for business leaders, policy practitioners, and industry professionals who need to understand how commercial and strategic opportunities are evolving in Pacific nations. Every two weeks I’ll track what to watch, what you should do and share ideas that shape market access and capability development. Market diversification is a critical imperative for Canada, and your business.
The last two weeks brought significant developments that highlight both Canada’s growing engagement in the Indo-Pacific and substantial opportunities ahead for Canadian defence and dual-use firms.
Indonesia - New Market Opens for Canadian Exporters
Canada and Indonesia signed two landmark agreements: the Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and a Defence Memorandum of Understanding (September 23), complementing the Military Cooperation MOU from late August. PM Carney and President Prabowo specifically called out CANSEC and the INDO Defence Forum as engagement platforms, committing to support national defence industry development.
Access to a 280-million-person market with significant cyber defence, maritime security, and capacity-building requirements. Indonesia is modernizing its military and investing heavily in domestic defence capabilities.
What to watch:
Will there be a whole-of-government push to deepen ties in strategic sectors or will focus remain on traditional trade?
How will Export Development Canada and the Canadian Commercial Corporation enable market entry?
Indonesian procurement priorities in cyber, maritime patrol, and training systems
What you should do:
Map your capabilities against Indonesia’s defence modernization priorities.
Identify potential Indonesian partners before INDO Defence Forum.
South Korea - Realpolitik Returns to Canadian Procurement
The $20B+ defence package remains active with formal proposals covering submarines, K9 howitzers, K239 MLRS systems, and IFVs. Hanwha Ocean and TKMS were officially downselected in late August. At the All In conference, sources say a Canadian Minister stated Canada would expect any winner of the submarine procurement to be a partner that leverages Canadian strategic capabilities, specifically naming Cohere, Canada’s leading AI company.
This represents a notable shift in Canadian procurement philosophy, introducing a realist philosophy in strategic technologies. It mirrors approaches common in Europe and Asia but unusual for Canada.
What to watch:
New MOUs around AI integration in defence systems
Seoul ADEX (October 21-26) for announcements and side meetings
Whether Germany matches Korea’s willingness to integrate Canadian AI capabilities
What you should do:
If you’re in AI/ML, robotics, or autonomous systems, you should be considering engaging with the national ecosystems of both bidding consortiums now.
If you’re bidding on major Canadian programs, you should consider if there might be opportunities for collaboration with Canadian National Champions.
Japan - Opening Doors for Deeper Cooperation
Japan launched Operation Atlantic Eagles — a two-week deployment of C-2 transports, KC-767/KC-46A refueling aircraft, and F-15s through Eielson AFB (US), Goose Bay (Canada), and onward to UK and Germany. This follows the recent Canada-Japan Information Sharing Agreement.
Japan, historically a challenging market for foreign defence firms, is actively building operational connections with like-minded partners. The deployment demonstrates Japan’s commitment to interoperability beyond the Indo-Pacific theater.
What to watch:
Follow-on exercises or formalized cooperation frameworks
Whether Canada plays a convening role connecting Japan with NATO partners
Japanese participation in Canadian-led exercises
What you should do:
The Japanese government is exploring deeper partnerships. Industrial cooperation should follow. If you have dual-use technology or capabilities relevant to Japan’s modernization requirements, now is the time to engage through JETRO and others in the Japanese government or directly with Japanese integrators.
Singapore - The Most Densely Defended Country in the World Invests More
Singapore announced additional fighter aircraft purchases and acquisition of four P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to replace its aging Fokker 50 fleet earlier this month.* While a relatively small acquisition, it’s a meaningful investment for the city state.
Canada is part of the P-8 user community, creating natural collaboration opportunities in MRO, training systems, mission data management, and sustainment analytics. Multiple Canadian firms are already in the P-8 supply chain.
What to watch:
Whether Singapore establishes a regional P-8 service center (likely through ST Engineering and Boeing)
Training and simulation contracts as Singapore builds P-8 operator capacity
Opportunities in mission data management and maritime domain awareness integration
What you should do:
P-8 supply chain companies should connect with ST Engineering and Boeing’s Singapore operations. Certain large training and simulation providers are probably already on the inside track for solutions in the market.
*this happened a bit outside the two week window, but what the heck. I’ll err on the side of inclusion in this case.
Taiwan - Unveils Counter-Drone Capabilities at TADTE
At the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition, NCSIST and Anduril unveiled the Barracuda 500 low-cost autonomous missile. Canadian company Airshare announced partnership with NCSIST on the Interceptor UX rocket system for counter-UAS missions. Meanwhile, US sources reported AIS signal spoofing in the Taiwan Strait, highlighting maritime surveillance gaps.
Counter-drone technology and maritime domain awareness are critical requirements across the region. Taiwan’s domestic defence industry is actively seeking international partners for co-development and technology transfer.
What to watch:
Counter-UAS requirements across other Indo-Pacific partners
Maritime surveillance technology needs driven by electronic warfare threats
NCSIST partnership opportunities for Canadian firms in sensors, AI, and autonomy
What you should do:
Firms with counter-drone, electronic warfare, or maritime surveillance capabilities should explore NCSIST partnerships. Consider attending future TADTE and other events for direct engagement.
India - Relations Thawing?
Canada’s National Security & Intelligence Advisor met India’s NSA in New Delhi (Sept 18). Both sides flagged counterterrorism, transnational crime, and intelligence-sharing as immediate workstreams, and Ottawa issued a public readout on Sept 20 underscoring momentum.
While complete normalization of relations and topics like defence trade and cooperation are likely a little ways away, it shows some movement in a positive direction in one of the world’s largest markets.
What to watch:
Is there sustained engagement over time? What other topics are addressed?
What you should do:
Wait and watch for now.
Looking Ahead
Coming in Future Editions: Australia, India, Malaysia, Thailand, New Zealand, Philippines, US and Canada
Upcoming Events:
ADEX (Seoul, October 21-26) - Republic of Korea’s premier defence exhibition
AUSA 2025 (Washington, October 13-15) - Major Indo-Pacific delegations attend
DEFSEC Atlantic (Halifax, 30 September - 2 October)
What did we miss? What countries or developments should we be tracking? Reply to this email or reach out directly.
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